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Tuesday, August 31, 2004


SEARCHING FOR RICK ANKIEL If someone had told me back in March that the Cardinals would basically sit out the September pennant race, I'd have guessed that the team had transmogrified into the late-'90s, McGwire-era Cards: big fat individual numbers surrounded by an emaciated supporting cast. Instead we've basically ended the race by playing some of the most inspired ball in Cardinals history, leaving only a few areas of drama before the postseason starts, namely:

1. Watching that Magic Number at left shrink and shrink.

2. Watching to see who we might play in the playoffs. The contenders for the first round are: L.A., Atlanta, San Fran, or San Diego. We'll know more about how we match up with the Pads and Dodgers after we go head-to-head with them over the next two weeks. Otherwise I'd say it's six/half-dozen with each of them; they worry and unworry me equally.

3. Watching to see what kind of cool numbers the team can compile. Will we win 102 games (the most since 1944)? Will Pujols hit 50 dingers (he's on pace for precisely 50 right now)? How many ribbies will Rolen collect? Can Izzy lead the league in saves? Can the Cards have four 16-game winners (again, haven't done that since 1944)? What about three 40-HR guys? Should be fun stuff to watch.

4. This would have been unthinkable a few weeks ago -- but will Rick Ankiel pitch good, meaningful baseball in a Cardinals uniform again? This is one of the hottest side stories in baseball right now, with most of baseball pulling for the kid for humanitarian reasons alone.

His minor-league numbers are pretty dazzling: 23 strikeouts, 2 walks, an ERA under 1.00, and -- best of all -- he seems to be getting better and stronger the higher he goes up the ladder. Can it continue? Hell, who knows. No one has been able to diagnose what ailed Ankiel to begin with, so it'd be foolish to pretend we know the prescription.

But there are two things that have me more excited than I might normally be. First of all, Ankiel is not only showing good control, but with only two walks in 23.2 innings (against 23 K's), he's showing better control than he ever did. I know I might get arrested here by the Small Sample Size Police, but Ankiel's 0.76 walks-per-nine is better than his previous season low of 2.80. And it's much better than the 4.5 walks-per-nine he had in the major leagues before he went haywire.

The other reason for optimism is that, since his meltdown, Ankiel has occasionally shown flashes of brilliance -- like his 1.34 ERA and 1.85 BB/9 totals in the '01 rookie leagues -- but he's never done this well above A ball, even for one game. You may remember that Ankiel pitched a swell game vs. Randy Johnson at the start of the '01 season. But even then he walked three guys in only five innings.

Obviously, though, there are the usual cautions: Ankiel has pitched only a handful of innings so far, it was against bush-league competition, he's been largely inoculated from an all-out media blitz (which would change if he made it to St. Louie), and, most importantly, we never know when or if Ankiel will be officially "cured." Sadly, it's all too easy to see Rick getting up here and winging a few to the backstop (and no matter how well I gird myself for it, I know it'll feel like a knife to the gut).

But suppose Ankiel comes up here and pitches swimmingly -- what will that tell us? After all, it's only September baseball, without much heat from the pennant race, and Ankiel will most likely be used in comfy, mop-up settings only. So if he passes that test, what about spring training, or next season, or the next time Ankiel is in a stretch-drive game, or in a playoff game? Is his syndrome over, or merely hibernating? Who knows? But it'll be fun to take the plunge and find out.


CARROLL KISSES, MAKES UP Will Carroll sent me a nice email yesterday, clarifying and defending some recent swipes he made at the Cardinals. He goes further with this write-up in today's Under the Knife column:

My pal Brian Gunn of Redbird Nation called me to task for my jabs at the Cardinals' rotation. I'm an admitted Cubs fan, but try hard to stay objective and honestly, I don't hate the Cards. I may not wear my Cards jersey anymore, but that's simply because J.D. Drew moved on. I remain unconvinced about the Cards rotation, but the fact that it has been so successful is testament to Dave Duncan and Walt Jocketty. Jocketty gave Duncan what he works with best: older pitchers with talent who have had mechanical and injury problems. Chris Carpenter is one of the top stories, showing some light in the darkness of labrum statistics. You'll probably remember last August, when I was regularly unconvinced by the Florida Marlins. As far as the staff goes, they'll be better when they get Steve Kline back. He should be back when eligible on September 12th, plenty of time to let Tony La Russa see he's healthy.
My reaction to all this: hey look, we got a link in Baseball Prospectus!


SELF-LOVE ITEM OF THE DAY I did an interview with a cool online pub called SportsFan Magazine recently. Hopefully I represented Redbirddom well -- check it out if you get a chance.


Monday, August 30, 2004


BASEBALL BALLET, REVISITED Speaking of grace on the ballfield, our good friend June passes along this apt photo:


A CHANGE OF HEART I got a kick out of this pair of comments --

Pirates manager Lloyd McClendon before Sunday's game: "They're much more talented than we are at this stage of the game, but I enjoy playing the Cardinals. You don't like the losses, obviously, but I really believe the competition has made us a better club. It has elevated our game. I think because of it we're going to be a better team next year."

Pirates manager Lloyd McClendon after Sunday's game: "Quite frankly, I'm tired of talking about St. Louis. I'm glad to see them leave."


Sunday, August 29, 2004


BASEBALL BALLET You can't do much to convince someone who's not into sports to fall in love with them, but occasionally I've tried. At times I've found myself arguing with bookish sorts that baseball is like any three-act narrative, with heroes, villains, dramatic tension, and far less predictable endings than you're likely to find in most movies, plays, or novels. Other times I've tried to argue (with women, mostly) that baseball is nothing more than ballet for guys. After all, I don't watch SportsCenter to get the stats or the scores, which I can get more quickly and thoroughly over the Internet. No, I watch them for the highlights, the Web Gems, the look of the ball leaving the bat on a home run, and the entire kinetic thrill of bodies in motion.

There were a number of great things about this weekend -- we swept three from the Bucs, continued our streak of winning road trips, gave most of our starters a rest, saw Pujols go to .300/30 HR/100RBI + for the fourth straight year, improved our record to 42 games over .500, widened our division lead to 15 games, and surpassed our win total from last year. But the real treat about Birdinal baseball these days is that you can sit back and sink into the games without fretting too much about the scoreboard. (That doesn't explain why I chucked a shoe against the wall when the Cards fell in extra innings the other night, but I'm trying to make a point here...) Our comfy lead going into September makes it easier to enjoy the ballet of baseball. So rather than discuss anything that happened on the field this series, hopefully these pix from Yahoo! will speak for me:








PLAYA HATER WATCH Two weeks ago we chronicled a few digs that medhead Will Carroll had taken at the Cardinals. We should probably turn it into a regular feature after this item buried in one of his recent columns:

Is Ankiel the savior for a shaky Cards rotation in the late season?
Excuse me? Did you all know that the Cards rotation -- the one that leads the majors in quality starts, that's 44-13 since June 1st -- is in need of saving?

Okay, to be fair, maybe that winning percentage is a bit skewed, what with our great offense. And to be even more fair, maybe Carroll was just referring to the last few weeks or so, when a few of our starters have been hit hard. So let's take the team's quality starts over the past month and compare them to... oh, I don't know; pick a team out of a hat... say, the Chicago Cubs:
             Games  Quality Starts

Cardinals 28 17
Cubs 28 14
Wait a second -- the Cubs? Isn't that Will Carroll's team? Wonder how often he's talked about their shaky starting rotation.


FINISHERS Bernie Miklasz passes along these neat stats re: the Cards' success in the late innings:

Through Wednesday, the Cardinals led the National League with 40 comeback wins. From the seventh inning on, they were outhitting opponents .269 to .223 and outhomering them 53-30. They had outscored opponents by 78 runs after the sixth inning, a margin more than twice as high as the next-closest mark in the majors. (The Yankees and Rangers were next, with a 34-run differential). The Cardinals' 213 runs after the sixth were tied with San Francisco for most in the majors, and their 135 runs allowed were the fewest in the majors. By comparison, the 1987 NL champion Cardinals had just a one-run advantage (243-242) after the sixth inning, and the 1982 World Series champion Cardinals were actually outscored by 13 runs after the sixth inning (221-208).
One very small quibble: both the '82 and '87 Cards pitched more innings than they hit from the 6th on due to their superior records at home (where, if your team wins, you usually pitch but don't hit in the 9th). But still, the 2004 Cards have an uncanny knack for clamping down as the game goes on, which is not only the biggest difference between this year's team and last, it's also what has transformed us from a very good team into a great team.


THE BLUE BALL YEARS That was the name my brother Matt gave to this era of Cardinals history, where the team has gone to the postseason in four of the past eight years but hasn't seen their success, er, climax in a World Series victory. (Although perhaps we shouldn't complain too much, as the cases of blue balls in Chicago, Cleveland, and Boston have now advanced into something like gangrene, amputation, and/or death.)

Dan over at Get Up, Baby! now has a cool post up where he compares the starting lineups of our past four division-winning teams (1996, 2000, 2001, and 2002) against this year's model. His conclusion? The '04 Cards are awesome -- but then again, so was that '00 team, what with Big Mac and Thrill at first, Vina's best year in a Cardinal uniform, and Lankford last superlative year in the Lou. Hard not to wonder what may have been if Ankiel had kept his head on straight that year.


REGIONALISM REDUX Last week Eric Gagne said Adrian Beltre won't get recognition as MVP because of East Coast bias, despite the fact that 14 of the last 16 MVPs have played in the Western Division. And just the other day Tom Verducci of Sports Illustrated said this about San Diego's Jake Peavy:

He's a bit overlooked this year because he missed a few starts, doesn't have a tremendous win total, and suffers from the usual bias toward teams that play in the Eastern time zone.
How usual is this East Coast bias? And how would you measure such a thing? I took a stab at it by (a) taking all the MVP and Cy Young Award winners since the six-division format began in 1995; (b) throwing out all the award winners who also led the league in Win Shares (because presumably the voters got those ones "right," so you wouldn't expect any bias based on region); and (c) seeing whether the discrepancies showed some kind of coastal favoritism.

For example, in 1995 Mo Vaughn won the MVP award for Boston with 24 Win Shares. Edgar Martinez, who played most of his games in the Pacific Time Zone, had 32 Win Shares but finished only 3rd in the balloting. So we'll chalk that up as an example of East Coast bias, even though, obviously, there are several other ways to explain the voting: RBI bias, or ballpark bias, or anti-DH bias, or whatever.

Nevertheless, if there is a such thing as East Coast bias, you'd expect to see it in the voting trends, otherwise it's not worth talking about. So here are the votes where Win Shares disagreed with the writers (and for the record, if a guy from the Pacific Time Zone got jobbed, I considered that East Coast bias, even if the guy who won didn't actually play on the East Coast):
   Award    BBWAA Winner (WS)     Shares Winner (WS)      "Bias"


95 AL MVP Mo Vaughn (24) Edgar Martinez (32) East
95 NL MVP Barry Larkin (30) Barry Bonds (36) East
96 AL MVP Juan Gonzalez (21) Alex Rodriguez (34) East
96 NL MVP Ken Caminiti (38) Jeff Bagwell (41) West
97 AL MVP Ken Griffey (36) Frank Thomas (39) West
97 NL MVP Larry Walker (32) Piazza (39), Gwynn (39) East
98 NL Cy Tom Glavine (23) Kevin Brown (26) East
98 AL MVP Juan Gonzalez (28) Albert Belle (37) --
98 NL MVP Sammy Sosa (35) Mark McGwire (41) --
99 AL MVP Ivan Rodriguez (28) Roberto Alomar (35) --
99 NL MVP Chipper Jones (32) Jeff Bagwell (37) --
01 AL Cy Roger Clemens (19) Joe Mays (22) --
01 AL MVP Ichiro Suzuki (36) Jason Giambi (38) --
02 AL MVP Miguel Tejada (32) Alex Rodriguez (35) West
03 NL MVP Barry Bonds (39) Albert Pujols (41) West
A number of things in that table may strike you (what struck me is that Jeff Bagwell, owner of one MVP award, may have deserved three; another is that Barry Bonds, owner of six awards, may have deserved even more -- in '95 he finished 12th in the balloting!).

You might also notice that there's not a great case for East Coast bias since 1998 or so. I don't know if this is a coincidence or not, but the late 1990's are also the dawn of the Internet Age, where any sportswriter could get up-to-the-minute scores online. The traditional take is that players in the Pacific Time Zone got screwed nationally because East Coast papers went to press before games out West were finished. But it's absurd to claim that nowadays. If there's still regional bias in award voting, then I don't see it.


THE CARDINALS OF THE KREMLIN There's a good new Cardinals blog out there that I forgot to mention in last week's roundup. It's called The Hunt for a Red October, and it's written by Benjamin Franklin, an 18th-century American statesman and inventor.


DREW IT AGAIN So the Diamondbacks may not be able to sign their #1 pick, Stephen Drew, younger bro of J.D. If Drew isn't signed, he'll go back into the amateur draft, which sets up a potential repeat of 1998...


Thursday, August 26, 2004


WHAT IF YOU THREW A BASEBALL GAME AND NO ONE CAME? They say there were 19,000 people watching tonight's contest in Cincy, but I think they used the same counting mechanisms they used in Chicago in 1960. The crowd had to be closer to 19 than 19,000, which lent a weird sense of irreality to the proceedings, like maybe the two teams were playing underwater or something. I swear at one point I heard someone in the stands sneeze.

But unfortunately this one counted, regardless of whether anyone was there to record it. (The scoreboard wasn't working all game, which added to the ghostliness of things.) Each inning I expected something to happen -- a ball to explode off Pujols' bat, or a 500-foot home run by Adam Dunn, or someone to crack open a bottle of that vintage Cardinals Magic -- but the two starting pitchers (who both went the distance, by the way) made sure they suppressed all uprisings.

Carpenter was almost perfect (although unfortunately the operative word is almost). It was the fourth time this year he pitched 8 innings and gave up one or no runs. Only two guys got to second on him all night -- one on an error, the other on a home run trot. The latter was of course Sean Casey, whose jack in the 6th was the only interruption to Carpenter's steady rock-and-fire-rock-and-fire efficiency. All in all, a brilliant performance, just not brilliant enough.

Aaron Harang, on the other hand, was brilliant, from start to finish. It may have been the best performance by a mound opponent this year: 9 innings, only 4 baserunners, 106 pitches, 73 strikes. The most amazing thing was the way he treated our Big Four of Walker, Pujols, Rolen, and Edmonds: collectively oh-for-14 with 4 K's, and only two balls out of the infield. Wow.

He did get a little help along the way. In the 8th inning Renteria hit a bomb to right center that Austin Kearns made a diving, sprawling catch on. And the next batter, Reggie Sanders, got robbed by another diving play, this time by third baseman Felipe Lopez. Two of the best back-to-back grabs I've seen in a long time. At that point you just had to tip your cap to the Reds; they outplayed us, pure and simple.

The real moment of truth for Harang came with two outs in the ninth. Up 'til that point, the Cards were only a Tony Womack away from being no-hit. But Walker's nubber through the infield brought up the final showdown: Big Bad Albert, potential winning run at the dish. The crowd -- all 19 of them -- came alive, sounding more like 19,000 at last. And just like a week ago against Cincy, Pujols ended the game by bouncing out to the left side. Damn Kryptonite.

So the Cards drop a rare road series, and in truth they quite easily could have been swept. (Although, to be fair, the Reds quite easily could have been swept too -- each game was decided by one late-inning run.) I think it's too soon to draw any conclusions about the current mood of this Cardinals team, but they don't look quite as spunky as usual, even with the big come-from-behind win last night. Rolen, for one, looks extremely tired. No hits in 11 ABs in the series, plus an uncharacteristic error. It might be wise to rest him for a game in Pittsburgh before the SoCal niners come to town on Tuesday.

I will say one thing, though: it feels very weird to be fretting about a team that's gone 17-7 on the month.


KAP KONTROVERSY What follows is an authentic, on-the-record phone interview I conducted with Major League Baseball from inside my head:

[phone rings]

MLB: Hello, Major League Baseball speaking.

RBN: A ten-game suspension for Julian Tavarez? Just for having gunk on his cap?

MLB: Who is this?

RBN: Redbird Nation. You don't recognize my voice?

MLB: Sorry, Redbird, you sounded like someone else. As for the stuff on Tavarez's cap, first of all it wasn't just any old gunk --

RBN: -- all right, dirt, whatever.

MLB: No, pine tar. Key difference.

RBN: How so?

MLB: Pine tar is a foreign substance. You can't have it on your cap. Tavarez did, so we suspended him.

RBN: So just having it on your cap is enough to get you busted?

MLB: Check out the rule book. 8.02(b) -- you can't have on your person, or in your possession, any foreign substance. If you do, you're out the game, if not several games.

RBN: I don't get it. Biggio, Thome, Vlad Guerrero -- they all come to the plate with pine tar caked all over their batting helmets. No one tosses them out.

MLB: Because they're not pitchers. 8.02(b) only applies to pitchers.

RBN: I still don't get it. Steve Kline has been in hundreds of games with gunk all over his hat -- Gagne too. Are you sure there isn't a double standard here with Tavarez?

MLB: You're missing the point. The infraction is the foreign substance. Kline's hat is dirty, but that's dirt from the playing field. Totally incidental. Same with Gagne and his sweat-stained cap.

RBN: Okay, so what is it about this pine tar? Isn't it something that only helps batters?

MLB: It can help pitchers too -- not much with the fastball, but you put it on a breaking pitch and you'll see the ball do some crazy things. Altering the grip or shape of a baseball will always be an advantage to the pitcher.

RBN: Okay, so I get all that. But hasn't Tavarez had this stuff on his cap all year? In fact, this was the third time the umps inspected him. Presumably he had the same caps, same gunk, and yet this was his first ejection. What gives?

MLB: There were a few differences this time. First of all, Tavarez and La Russa admitted to Joe West that the substance on his cap was pine tar or resin or some similar foreign substance.

RBN: Exactly. Grime and resin and pine tar -- all that gunk we were talking about -- collects on an unwashed cap over the course of a year, just by happenstance, same as the dirt on Kline's cap or the sweat on Gagne's. By admitting this, surely La Russa and Tavarez weren't fessing up to the crime of doctoring baseballs. They were fessing up to the crime of having incidental gunk on his cap.

MLB: Again, it doesn't matter -- like I said before, just having an illegal substance on your person is enough to get you kicked out. When we found a nail file on Joe Niekro a number of years back, or a thumbtack on Kevin Gross, we didn't need to get into the intetionality of the pitcher or anything like that. We didn't even need to find doctored baseballs. All we needed was the offending object, and in this case all we needed was Tavarez's gunky hat.

RBN: Now, wait a minute -- if that were true you'd have the hat itself. But you gave it back to Tavarez.

MLB: Joe West saw it. So did the rest of our umpiring crew. That's enough for us.

RBN: That's enough to throw Tavarez out of the game, but is it enough to suspend him? I mean, if someone's, say, corking his bat, you'd certainly want to have the bat and you'd want it analyzed. Why then don't you have Tavarez's cap?

MLB: Ask him. Didn't he throw it into the stands?

RBN: You gave it back to him. He's free to do whatever he wants with it.

MLB: But don't you find it odd that he got rid of it so quickly? It's like flushing the dime bag down the toilet before the cops come.

RBN: Well, if you want to extend the analogy you guys basically sentenced a guy to jail because you heard water swishing around in the toilet. There's no evidence of a serious crime.

MLB: We do have evidence. We have baseballs he doctored.

RBN: When? You tossed him while he was throwing warm-up pitches.

MLB: Yeah, but he threw the inning before that. We have those baseballs, and they do show the presence of a foreign substance.

RBN: Where are these baseballs? He threw only 5 pitches -- one was fouled out of a play and is presumably on someone's mantelpiece right now. Another was hit in play and easily could have collected pine tar from a player's bat. So you're talking at the most three questionable baseballs, and that would be if the ump threw out a new baseball on every single pitch. I don't buy it. In fact, I don't think you have any baseballs.

MLB: Okay, maybe we don't.

RBN: What?

MLB: Nothing.

RBN: Dude, I totally heard you admit you were lying.

MLB: No, I just, you know, sneezed, and by coincidence it probably came out sounding like human speech.

[Redbird Nation sighs]

MLB: Look, we do know that the balls Tavarez threw were doing some wicked things in that game. Talk to Lloyd McClendon. His guys told him Tavarez was throwing a 90-mph knuckleball.

RBN: Which guys? Tavarez faced only one batter that game. McClendon was trying to mess with Tavarez's head and now he's just covering his own ass by making up witnesses. Besides, McClendon himself said last year that Tavarez doesn't doctor his pitches.

MLB: Right, when he was his manager and looking out for him. Now that he's on the other team, he has an interest in telling the truth.

RBN: Why do you assume that? Doesn't he have just as much interest in making shit up? Here's what I think: I think you guys don't like that schtik Tavarez pulled by leaving the field and throwing his arms around the home plate ump; I think you don't like that he threw his cap into the stands when your own umps should have confiscated it; and I think you just plain don't like Julian Tavarez. His crime is alot like Driving While Black -- Pitching While Flaky. So you threw the book at him.

MLB: Nonsense. We don't consider the personality of anyone we suspend.

RBN: Well, perhaps you should. I mean, have you heard Tavarez talk about this incident? He makes sense.

MLB: Yeah, Julian Tavarez always makes sense. Same guy who called fans in San Francisco "a bunch of assholes and faggots." Same guy who slammed an umpire to the ground about seven or eight years ago.

RBN: Okay, I'll admit -- Julian has a few screws loose. But the man said he didn't doctor baseballs and he swore on the heads of his own children! Now, forgive me if this is some kind of gross stereotype, but it's been my experience that when Latino men start swearing on the lives of their family they're telling the truth.

MLB: Look, even if Tavarez is more-or-less innocent, even if he had good motives, we have to uphold the rule, and the rules say you can't have gunk on your cap.

RBN: Probably because you don't want the MLB logo obscured for merchandising.

MLB: What, are you a Marxist now?

RBN: No, I'm just upset that there seems to be a double standard. I don't believe you guys have proof of wrongdoing, you only have one grimy cap. What's more, by precedent you've always let this stuff slide in the past. That's a dangerous place to be -- sorta like the Pine Tar Incident twenty years ago, where baseball decided to crack down on something that it had always winked at. According to the letter of the law, they were right. According to the practice of the law, they were wrong. That's called bad policy and, again, a very dangerous place to be.

MLB: You're being hyperbolic. You know how these things work -- we hand down a ten-game suspension, Tavarez appeals, we reduce it to seven games, and by that time it's September, the Cards have wrapped up the division, and you're more concerned with how Rick Ankiel pitches out of the pen than any of this rigamarole. So let it go.

RBN: I would be able to let it go if it weren't for Stinkhat.

MLB: Who's Stinkhat?

RBN: Steve Kline. Krazy Kliner. Says he won't wear his greasecap now for fear of getting busted by the boys upstairs.

MLB: So what?

RBN: That cap's like Samson's hair, man. It gives Kline power and courage. If he gives up a salami to Derrek Lee in the NLCS, I'm blaming you.

MLB: Jesus, I gotta go...

RBN: Okay. Thanks for talking to us. By the way, can you score me any good seats for the playoffs?

[click]


Wednesday, August 25, 2004


SWEET RELIEF There. Now that's more like it. Tonight was iffy, bumpy, and occasionally ugly -- the winning run scored on a wild pitch -- but in the end the Redbirds came out on top. So now let's do that thing where I make a series of glib comments:

  • Most of tonight's game looked like a Xerox of last night's game. The Cards again raced to an early lead off a homer to left, saw the Reds chip away thanks in part to a home run by D'Angelo Jimenez, and got stymied by another raw Reds rookie (last night Josh Hancock, tonight Luke Hudson). In fact, the Cards never did get in a groove with runners in scoring position -- they were 0-9 last night, 0-6 tonight -- but unlike Tuesday they got some big hits in the late innings.


  • Before we close the book on last night's loss, check out these two stats: (a) it was only the 11th time all year we lost after taking a lead (how's that for our pitching staff clamping down?); and (b) it was only the second time all year we lost to open a road trip. Wild.


  • There's a story that old-timey Negro League player Buck O'Neil likes to tell about the sound of the ball hitting the bat. Apparently the first time he ever heard Babe Ruth hit a baseball, it made such a crisp, distinctive noise that he never forgot it. A few years later he was privileged enough to hear the same sound coming from the bat of Josh Gibson. Years and years later he was walking toward the ballfield and heard that noise again, for only the third time in his life -- this time from the Bunyanesque Bo Jackson. I think of this sometimes w/r/t Albert Pujols. In fact, Mike Matheny has mentioned a few times how he practices in the offseason with Prince Al, and the ball just sounds so much different coming off of Pujols' bat. I guess the idea is that if you're around baseball enough, you can close your eyes, listen to a guy take a swing, and say "that's Pujols, that's Reggie Sanders, that's Mike Matheny," and so on. But here's the thing: I don't think that would work with Pujols. For one simple reason -- even when he's cheated the ball goes a mile. Take tonight. 1-2 pitch in the 1st, Albert went down for a pitch, swung off balance, and the ball made a whimpering little Matheny pop off the bat. And yet it went over the wall. You had to see it -- not hear it -- to believe it.


  • With George Will sitting down near home plate and Cards owner (and Cincinnati resident) Bill DeWitt up in the box, it must have been Republican Night at the ballpark.


  • I was scared about Woody Williams going into this game, for this reason:
    •                             IN   ER  HR  BB  K   ERA
      
      Woody vs. Cincinnati 31.3 19 8 14 29 5.46
      Woody vs. everyone else 117.3 46 7 36 73 3.53
      After tonight's game, his ERA is 5.78 against the Reds -- and he's now given up exactly 5 earned runs in 6 innings in four straight starts against the Redlegs.

    • During last night's broadcast Reds announcer George Grande (who's quite pleasant, by the way) said that Jason Marquis was such a good hitter because he was tutored by the Atlanta Braves, who have a great tradition of good-hitting pitchers. But the Cardinals -- with guys like Allen Watson, Todd Stottlemyre, Omar Olivares, and tonight's starter, Woody Williams -- have had their share of pitchers who can handle the bat. Since the Braves dynasty began in 1991, here are the collective hitting numbers for each team's pitchers:
             AVG   OBP   SLG
      
      ATL .162 .205 .204
      STL .163 .201 .206
      In that time span, Braves pitchers lead the majors with 219 runs created. Cards pitchers are second, with 216.


    • Here's something else from George Grande -- during one of Sean Casey's at bats, he said that the Cardinals have been extremely successful this year at neutralizing the other teams' top hitters. So I decided to check that. Here are the top 15 hitters the Cards have faced this year, divvied up according to whether they did better, worse, or about the same against the Cardinals relative to the rest of the league:


    • Better: Todd Helton, Jim Thome, Derrek Lee, Aramis Ramirez

      Worse: Barry Bonds, J.D. Drew, Ichiro, Sean Casey, Adam Dunn, Miguel Cabrera, Lyle Overbay, Michael Young, Mike Lowell

      About the Same: Bobby Abreu, Lance Berkman

      If you're keeping score at home, that's 4 better, 9 worse, and 2 about the same. So Grande may well be right.

    • All year D'Angelo Jimenez has been one of my favorite opponents. He does a lot of things right, but rarely gets noticed as a good player. But man, he's wearing our pitchers out this series: 5-for-9 with a double, a couple homers, and some great plays in the field.


    • Pujols' bunt single in the 8th was vintage Pujols. He homered in the first, stroked a double in the 3rd, and then, with the Cards two down in the 8th, saw the third baseman playing deep and laid down an aesthetically ordinary but effectively wonderful bunt. Tony La Russa has adopted relentless as the team buzzword this year, and no one embodies that more than Pujols. The guy's constantly pressing for an advantage, anywhere he can get it. If the other team is lax getting the ball back into the infield, he'll gun for the extra base. If a pitcher falls behind him 3-0, he'll exploit the next pitch he leaves over the plate. And if the infield is back, he'll nab a little bunt hit off of you. He's greedy in the best sense of the word, and that base hit he laid down in the 8th tonight was huge.


    • Think the Reds are sick of Jim Edmonds? He has 8 bombs against them this year, and he's robbed them of two home runs in the field, giving him 10 net homers vs. Cincinnati on the year. After he hit that game-tying homer in the eigth, you got the impression a victory was just a matter of time. And it was.

    • Tuesday, August 24, 2004


      ROLEN'S TRAVELS When the story of Scott Rolen is told at the end of his career, hopefully at some podium in Cooperstown, it'll be told in two parts: his years in Philadelphia will end in a haze of rancor and misunderstanding, and his years in St. Louis will seem like one big warm embrace.

      But the real story isn't so cleanly bifurcated. As this Post-Dispatch article suggests, Scotty was far from happy his first season wearing the Birds on the Bat:

      Rolen admits 2003 bothered him... Abstaining from specifics, [he] said, "There were things that were allowed to slide that I didn't understand. At some point, you look around and ask, 'What the heck's going on?' Right now, guys are having fun coming to the ballpark. It's a game and everybody's having a great time. Last year it was like a job. What shoe was going to fall next? What's going to happen? Is somebody going to get upset in the clubhouse?... Last season was not comfortable. It was not fun."
      Rolen goes on to clear the air about some shit that went down at the end of last season, although evidently it still rankles him that Tino Martinez was shipped out of town in exchange for some beads and a couple of smallpox blankets. "I'm still not exactly sure why he's not here," said Rolen.

      Rolen also gets in some digs at the malingerers on the Cardinals roster last season:

      Rolen was among a cluster who wondered why some teammates so freely used injuries as an excuse to miss time. Again refusing to cite names, Rolen notes those players were included in last winter's heavy turnover. "For whatever
      reason, you look around and those guys are happy to play where they're at now," he said.
      Rolen might not name names, but we'll throw out a few -- here are the guys on the team who missed time with injuries and now play elsewhere: Tino, Drew, Vina, Marrero, and Dustin Hermanson. It's doubtful he's talking about Tino (he defends him elsewhere in the piece) or Marrero (whose injury was pretty serious). Smart money is on Vina, who seemed to be sending out pissiness vibes from about May of '03 onward, and possibly even J.D. Drew, who has a rep as a shirker and a sissy. I've always wanted to believe that Drew's injuries were more serious than they were perceived, but I would not at all be surprised if Rolen -- the ballplayer's ballplayer who'd man the hot corner on crutches if he had to -- didn't take kindly to Drew and all his skulking.

      Whatever the case, Rolen seems to be genuinely happy now. Professionally, he's worked out some kinks in his swing, and personally, he's weathered a few family health scares. And best of all, he's no longer in Philadelphia, a place where, says Rolen, "You were supposed to hate the other team, hate the media, hate everything" (which makes you wonder if Larry Bowa, a notorious red ass, isn't the worst possible guy to manage that team and feed all that crankiness).

      This past January the papers in Philly wrote a series of articles whooping it up over the fate of Scott Rolen. The Philadelphia Daily News gloated that the Phillies would romp through the NL East, while "lo and behold, Rolen's new team in 'heaven,' St. Louis, is cutting payroll as it prepares to finance its own new stadium." Jim Salisbury also pitied our poor, backsliding ballclub in St. Louis and asked snidely, "Wonder what Scott Rolen is thinking these days?"

      Well, Jim, he's probably thinking, "thank God I'm not 6 1/2 games out of the Wild Card."

      Monday, August 23, 2004


      FUN WITH P/PA! You know it's a slow Monday when the Cards don't have a game and you find yourself looking at the pitches-per-plate-appearance numbers over at ESPN's sortable stats page. The Cards have three of the 20 most patient hitters in the league: Jim Edmonds (4th in P/PA), Rolen (14th), and... Tony Womack? Yup. He comes in at #18 in terms of pitches per plate appearance.

      Now, this doesn't mean that T-Dub is drawing a lot of base on balls. He's on pace for only 43 in 145 games, and his walk rate is the same as it was in 2002, his last full season of play. But luckily he's sporting the highest BA, OBP, and SLG of his entire career, and has been one of the more productive second basemen in the league (although that's partly due to injuries to other 2Bmen like Marcus Giles and Junior Spivey).

      But the reason I checked out the P/PA numbers to begin with is because I was interested in Albert Pujols. He set a goal before the season to draw 100 walks, but he's on track to fall short of the mark. Plus I've noticed that his strikeouts are up and his walks are down since the All-Star break:

                        K/100 PA    BB/100 PA
      
      Pre-All Star 6.6 13.6
      Post-All Star 10.1 10.1
      So I wondered if he had changed his approach and started swinging at more pitches. Not really. He saw 3.64 pitches per plate appearance before the break, 3.56 after. So he's been more aggressive, yes, but not egregiously so.

      But even if Pujols has been less patient, it's been paying off. Both his slugging and on-base percentages are up since the break, which suggests that Pujols' pre-season goal of 100 walks might have been throwing him off his game somewhat. The fact is, Pujols still walks a lot, and he's got enough bat speed to go up there looking to swing.

      How much bat speed? Well, check this out: Pujols strikes out only 16% of the time after falling in an 0-2 hole. Compare that to Rolen (39%), Walker (50%), and Edmonds (53%). That's pretty amazing.

      Sunday, August 22, 2004


      EDGAR 11, BUCS 4 For awhile it seemed like this game might be like Saving Private Ryan, with all the good stuff in the beginning, but Edgar and Walker and Co. provided us with a few late fireworks to cap off a nice third act. Some notes:

    • Despite the 10 hits allowed, today we got Good Matt Morris. Almost none of the hits off him were hard and he was getting his curveball over, striking out 6 in 7 innings. If you look at Morris' peripheral numbers (WHIP, K/9 IN, stuff like that), they're not too much different from our other starters. The one thing that jumps out at you are the gopher balls -- 1.5 per 9 innings -- which account for his shabby 4.58 ERA. It seems our other pitchers benefit from good sinkers, whereas when Matty misses it's with his curveball up in the zone, hence the homers. (Although to be fair, even those are dropping -- only 4 allowed in his last 11 starts.)


    • The Pirates' slogan this year is "Every Day is Game Day." That's about as inspirational as "We Play Out the Schedule."


    • Despite dropping four of five here in the Lou, the Pirates are still on pace for 76 wins, their most in five years (thanks in part to a tremendous deal with the Padres, Giles for Bay and Oliver Perez). After Thursday night's game they were only a half-game behind the Phillies in the Pennsylvania standings, but this weekend caused them to backslide a little.


    • Renteria's AB in the first was the second best battle I've seen all year, after this one, of course. Here's how it went: called strike - swinging strike - foul - foul - foul - ball outside - ball inside - foul - foul - foul - foul- foul - foul - foul - ball up and in - home run to the opposite field. In some ways Renteria's duel with Vogelsong was even more epic than Cora's with Clement, because it turned a 2-0 deficit into a 3-2 lead (whereas Cora's was simply the icing on the cake before Gagne Time). Just astounding focus.


    • A couple weeks ago Renteria went 5-for-5 against the Mets and said he felt something click that day, as if, four months into the season, he had finally found his stroke from last season. He might be right. Before that game Renteria's line was .286/.330/.409. In the two weeks after that game it's .353/.377/.510.


    • I liked the curtain call for Renteria in the first, and the one for Walker in the 8th was nice too, and the three last night weren't bad either. But I sorta hope these curtain calls don't become too much of a "thing" at Busch. They strike me as sorta self-congratulatory (if not autoerotic), and I'd prefer if we doled 'em out more sparingly.


    • Mike Matheny has a new batting stance -- he's now crouched up like a guy sitting in a lawn chair. Last night was MM's first night with the stance and he went 2-for-4 with a double and a homer (the other two times he was robbed of hits). Today he went 2-for-4 again with a double (and again, even his outs were hard -- his first AB he smoked it right at the second baseman). If Matheny actually starts hitting, our lineup will give pitchers very few places to hide.


    • When did Craig Wilson start appearing in the box score as "Craig A. Wilson"? I'm guessing that with that Viking 'do he's got going, the A stands for "Aragorn."


    • Nonsense stat of the day:
                               Games    Grand Slams
      
      Larry Walker, MTL/COL 1,845 5
      Larry Walker, STL 13 2
    • But that's not even the best thing about Walker's slam. The best is that Steve Kline, who was on first by way of an error, scored the first run of his entire 8-year career. After he crossed home plate, he sorta stood in the back of the greeting line for Walker, perhaps the only time Kline has ever willingly taken a backseat to anyone.

    • ODDS AND SODS Here's a grabbag of stuff filling up a folder on my virtual desktop:

    • Cardinals blogs are popping up like mushrooms after the rain. Go check out The Cardinal Virtue, Random Redbird Reasoning, or, if you like your Cardblogs cut with mixed-drink recipes, head over to a website called Fuck Your Couch.


    • Who's the AL MVP? The statistics don't help us out much. Win Shares Above Replacement has it (1) Sheffield (2) Matsui (3) Hafner. Runs Created Above Average has it (1) Ichiro (2) Hafner (3) Mora. And Value Above Replacement has it (1) Mora (2) Carlos Guillen (3) Tejada. And then of course you've got to consider Manny, Vlad, and I-Rod. I'm guessing Manny will win it -- and he's a solid choice -- but it's a tough year, because most of the big stars are in the NL. If Bonds, Pujols, Rolen, Edmonds, Abreu, or Beltre were in the AL, he'd be the frontrunner.


    • Speaking of MVPs, check out this quote from Eric Gagne after Adrian Beltre's game-tying and game-winning home runs the other night:
      "He's amazing. That's the MVP right there. Nobody can get him out... He's the MVP by far. It's easy. East Coast people won't see it, but it's easy."
      Um, Eric? Only one MVP in the last eight years has played on the East Coast (Chipper Jones in '99). Of the 16 MVP awards handed out in that time, fourteen of them went to players out West.


    • Pujols, Edmonds, and Rolen are each on pace for 40 home runs. They probably won't all make it, especially if they rest down the stretch, but it should be noted that only one team outside of Coors Field has had three players hit 40 home runs in one year.


    • Dayn Perry has this reaction to the news that Juan Peron -- er, I mean, Bud Selig -- has essentially been named commish-for-life: "If Selig has a legacy, it's that under his watch owners, by and large, began treating their teams like fungible assets, tax shelters and income-generators rather than baseball clubs. We're left with a sport that's now a cartel trafficking in threats and extortion."


    • I liked this note from the AP report of Saturday's game: "The Cardinals haven't had a losing week -- Monday through Sunday -- since May 3-9." Gulp.


    • ANTHONY REYES WATCH Last summer we followed the exploits of Danny Haren during his trek through the minors. Now we can follow Cardinal-to-be Anthony Reyes (not to be confused with recent bullpen addition Al Reyes). Last night in Tennessee, Anthony struck out 11 in 7 shuout innings, and added a home run of his own for good measure. Over his last two starts covering 14 innings, Reyes has struck out 26 guys against only one walk. It's becoming more and more obvious why the Cards felt comfortable dealing Chris Narveson to Colorado -- Reyes is our future hotshot now.


      Friday, August 20, 2004


      CAP FLAP The latest brouhaha down at Busch is absolutely priceless. I can't decide what's the best part. Is it Tavarez putting his arm around home plate ump Ron Kulpa and suggesting they grab a beer after the game? Or is it Tavarez dumping all his caps on McClendon's desk? Or is it McClendon storming out of his office, slamming the door, and weepily cutting Tony La Russa's photos out of his friendship collage?

      Didn't I tell you that Joe West has to be the star of every game he works? He kicked out Tavarez just for the hell of it. After all, if there was an illegal substance on the cap it would have been confiscated.


      What I'd do if I were Tony LaRussa....

      Give Larry Walker this Sunday off. Joe West and his mysterious strike zone will be back behind the plate Sunday. Given Larry's abominable performance Thursday (0-5 with three Ks and two GIDPs) it seems wise to just keep him away from any plate with Mr. Illegal Pitch behind it.

      Enter Ray King in a contest sponsored by these guys. Bet on Ray. Clean up.

      Use Cal Eldred more. His performance has picked up significantly recently, which coincides with an increased workload. The team apparently isn't going to pick up any right-handed bullpen help (and the marquee September call-up is a certain enigmatic lefthander) so it would seem prudent to keep Eldred in top form down the stretch. One would presume that he, Izzy, Tavarez, and one of the starters would make up the right-handed side of the postseason bullpen.

      Take and hour and watch the Sklar brothers hilarious show where they campaign to get Jose Oquendo in the Hall of Fame. Then, join the movement. He did, after all, strike out Deion Sanders looking.

      Use Marquis as a pinch hitter. Just a few times because it's cool.

      Understand that everyone knows I wear glasses. Taking them off and putting them in my shirt when I run on the field fools nobody.

      "Call" on Renteria every time he stretches his arm above his head during a game. This happens about once every minute so the hilarity should be non-stop. Imagine "Yes, Edgar, do you have something to tell the class?" Every time. Oh, that would be great. And surely Edgar would call his agent and ask to re-sign right away. I'm a funny manager guy.

      Hopefully I'd have already done this, but assure Lankford he will be back on the team Sept. 1. I'm guessing this has happened and was the only reason ray accepted the minor league assignment.

      Just drop the posing and fly down to Houston this weekend and kick Dusty Baker's ass. Dusty's kind of big, though. Better bring Dunc.

      Write this on the underside of my cap - "Infielders cannot just go play the outfield. This is the majors. It's hard."

      Secure a visa to visit whatever planet Roger Cedeno seems to escape to during some of his at bats. Go there; convince Roger to return to Missouri. Hope for the best.

      Disappear from the dugout mid-game and show up in the Fox Sports Booth to whale away on Al Hrabosky with a fungo bat. (Sub in Jeff Brantley for Hrabosky if it's an ESPN game.) All that "He's not Herzog so he sucks" crap would end right there.

      Three words - Nurture The Mullet.


      CARDSAPALOOZA I've heard some people complain that the Cards aren't getting the attention they deserve this year. But in this day and age it's nearly impossible for a team with the best record in baseball not to get a lot of press, and to my eyes it seems the Cards have had their fair share: they've been the Fox and ESPN games of the week many times, their game highlights frequently kick off SportsCenter, and they've been #1 in every power ranking I've seen for weeks on end.

      But if you're still not convinced, take a look at the outpouring of love for the Birdinals all around the web recently. First there's Peter Gammons' homage to GM Walt Jocketty, which has this interesting quote from Tony La Russa:

      "There may not be anyone else who has brought the types of star players to one team the way Walt has. It started in 1996 when he got Todd Stottlemyre to make us a contender, and it's gone on and on to Mark McGwire and Darryl Kile, Jim Edmonds, Rolen, Edgar Renteria... Star players, star people."
      We've talked about this alot, but the job Jocketty has done over the years really is astounding. Has any one GM ever acquired, via trades, a surefire Hall of Famer (McGwire), a possible Hall of Famer (Edmonds), and a more-than-possible Hall of Famer (Rolen)?

      Next up is Eric Neel's hosanna to our first baseman, guy by the name of Pujols. It includes this startling passage:
      Look past Bonds, if you can. Who defines the next era? Who is the magnetic center of the new world? Some would say A-Rod... But is he a monster? Does he intimidate? Do you TiVo Yankee games just to watch his ABs? Is there a charge -- the pitcher's sense of dread mixed with the fans' sense of anticipation -- in the air whenever he steps in? I don't see it. I don't feel it. Not the way I do with Pujols.
      I'm biased, but Neel seems about right. That's why it was so shocking, on Wednesday night, to see Pujols ground meekly to third to end the game with the winning runs on base. I got that weird sense of bafflement I get when, say, Bonds fouls out to the catcher. Half of you can own up to what just happened, but the other half of you suspects that your TV is malfunctioning.

      Batting third is Tim Kurkjian, ESPN's resident chipmunk, who has a lot of nice things to say about Jim Edmonds. About Jimmy's swing, he writes:
      It is Ernie Els-like, you wonder how the ball travels so far when he swings with seemingly so little effort and force.
      Kurkjian also brings up the possibility that the Cards will become the first team since the Big Red Machine to have three players (Edmonds, Rolen, and Pujols) in the top 4 of the MVP voting at year's end. I honestly don't know who, besides Bonds, that I'd put ahead of any of those guys. Abreu? Loretta? Possibly. But if I was filling out a ballot today they'd probably be #5 and #6.

      Lastly, there's Ken Rosenthal's long discussion in The Sporting News about the healthy possibility that the Cards will go deep into the postseason. But he doesn't gloss over the hurdles this team faces, namely:

      Will Isringhausen remain sound? Will Marquis tire in his first full season of starting? Will the team's best pitcher, right-hander Chris Carpenter, wear down after missing all of last season because of shoulder surgery? Once the postseason begins, other issues will arise. What if the Braves' Jaret Wright, unbeaten in his last 15 starts and 9-0 in that span, turns into this year's Josh Beckett? What if La Russa again shows a tendency to overmanage, losing with the better club as he did in the 1988 and '90 World Series with the A's and the '02 NLCS with the Cardinals?
      Good questions all. But I do like our chances, even if you buy Will Carroll's logic that the Cards have won too many one-run games to go deep into October. Then again, we've dropped two straight games by one run, so even Will must admit that we're as sturdy as ever.

      Thursday, August 19, 2004


      NOT OUR NIGHT This was a strange one. Scott Rolen made two errors, one a dropped popup and one right through his legs. Larry Walker came up four times after a Tony Womack single -- twice he whiffed, twice he grounded into a DP. And the Cards got a dramatic two-out, game-tying home run from Reggie Sanders in the bottom of the ninth, then turned around and dropped the game in extra innings. It was their fourth loss in a row to the Pirates. Very strange.

      This is not to say the Bucs didn't deserve to win. Oliver Perez was on tonight, routinely ratcheting it up to 96 mph on the radar gun. He's probably one of the ten best pitchers in the NL at this point, and, at only 23 years old, figures to be a major thorn in the Cardinals' side for years to come. This is especially disconcerting given his awful facial hair (is there anything worse than high-maintenance stubble?).

      I don't have much more to say about this game, but I will say this: Joe West, who worked home plate tonight, is just about the worst umpire in all of baseball. (I'd put him second from the bottom, just ahead of Jerry Crawford.) It's bad enough that West has no discernible strike zone, even worse that he has to make himself the star of every game he works. He baits players, holds grudges, goes out of his way to make "startling" calls (I didn't see the illegal pitch call he made against Oliver Perez, but I'm betting he made it up just to show everyone who's boss). Last May, West called out Scott Rolen for failing to tag up from third base on a flyball, but the replays showed that Rolen clearly left on time. As I wrote back then, West is "the type of smug, complacent ump who gets so bored that he needs to insert himself into the action now and again." I'd put him in the same category as small-town cops and high school administrators -- petty tyrants who throw their weight around simply because they can.


      SO FAR SO GOOD Dan at Get Up, Baby! takes a look at Rick Ankiel's first start in Double A. Not bad, Rick. Not bad at all...


      Wednesday, August 18, 2004


      PASS THE MIC A few weeks ago SI.com ran a piece by Tom Verducci in which he picked his favorite baseball broadcasters of all time. I can’t complain much about his choices – personally I’d’ve picked Jack Buck over Harry Caray for play-by-play, but beyond that, who am I to say? I mean, I’ve never even heard Red Barber or Ernie Harwell or Curt Gowdy for more than ten seconds in a row.

      So I thought it might be fun to do the flipside of this article. But rather than draw up a list of my least favorite broadcasters, I’ll give you a list of my least favorite broadcasterisms – on-air tics, opinions, and idiocies that drive me up a wall. At first I thought I'd do a Top Ten list, but that's sort of a clam. Besides, I know you're busy, so instead I present to you my 9 Baseball Broadcast Pet Peeves, in no particular order:

      1. No one sucks.

      Announcers often seem like they're covering a Little League game -- every hitter is dangerous, every pitcher has good stuff, and the newest player on the roster is a great pickup who gets a honeymoon period for at least a year.

      But the main beneficiaries of broadcaster largesse are veterans coasting by on reputation alone. Just tonight Al Hrabosky and Dan McLaughlin went on and on about what a fine pitcher Danny Graves was, even though he was getting hit hard, and even though he hasn't been sharp for two years now. In the same way, Jeff Bagwell is considered a top-shelf first baseman, despite a steady drop-off in value.

      Baseball announcers rely on rep particularly when it comes to glove men. Most guys in the booth don't know how to discuss defense beyond throwing around numbers of errors and excessively lauding certified Gold Glove winners. This generosity toward glove men sometimes bleeds over to entire glove teams. The goofiest example of this? Earlier this year Chip Carey intoned, "The Cardinals, as usual, terrific infield defense: Rolen, Luna, Womack, and Mabry." Okay, Rolen, sure, he's terrific, but then Luna? Wom -- ? Huh?

      Sometimes announcers go way out of their way to stroke the hometown players, for no particular reason. Take this comment about Brad Lidge from earlier this year, courtesy of Houston color man Bill Brown:

      "Only 1 out of 6 in save opportunities last year, but that’s deceptive, because your middle reliever is usually facing the heart of the order in the 8th inning, and many times your team regroups to come back and win."
      Do you follow that logic? See, those blown saves by Lidge were actually good things, because they allowed the hometown nine to collect a few come-from-behind wins. It would have been a lot more interesting -- and accurate -- if Brown had simply said Lidge sucked at saving games last year.

      Now, I know that's easy for me to say -- after all, broadcasters must maintain schmoozy relationships with managers and players, who are valuable sources for quotes, scoops, tips, and insights. But I don't see any reason why announcers can't do a sort of good cop/bad cop thing in the booth, where one guy (usually the ex-player) plays the role of organizational shill, constantly hyping the home team, while his partner plays Mr. Cynic. The dynamic would certainly be more interesting than the knee-jerk fanny-patting you hear from up in the booth.

      2. Heads I Win, Tails You Lose

      This one bugs me. Broadcasters frequently frame the action on the field to retro-fit whatever philosophy they want. For example, if a guy knocks a base hit on the first pitch, the announcer might praise the guy for "being aggressive and going up there and swinging the bat." But if the same guy swings the bat and grounds out to second, then he was being too aggressive, not patient enough. Either way the broadcaster is right.

      The worst at this is Joe Morgan -- at times he just seems plain old dishonest. A few weeks ago a runner was caught stealing, and Morgan said something like, "He definitely got in under the tag on that one. Watch, you'll see on the replay..." And then ESPN showed the replay and, sure enough, you could see that the runner was clearly tagged out. Did Morgan admit his mistake? Of course not. Instead he said, "Well, you really can't tell from that angle." And he does that all the time. Heads, he wins; tails, you lose.

      3. Dog Bites Man

      This refers, simply, to stating the obvious. My favorite recent example was from Brian Doolittle, who recorded this recent tidbit from the broadcast booth: "Scott Rolen is the type where if you make good pitches you will get him out a certain percentage of time." Very illuminating.

      Sometimes a baseball broadcast comes across as little more than a glurge of banalities: "you gotta put some runs on the board," "he likes his pitches out over the plate," "those walks will come back to haunt you," "you gotta put pressure on the defense," "the pitcher needs to own the inside of the plate," and on and on and on.

      To be fair, I can empathize with the difficulty of filling up an entire telecast with interesting things to say. I mean, imagine if you had to improvise for three hours straight, and someone was there to record everything you said. No doubt you'd say a lot of stuff that was just plain boring, or self-evident, or cliche. Hell, just last week Mike Shannon let author (and Cardinals fan) John Grisham take a turn behind the mike and do some play-by-play. He could not have come across as a bigger hack -- banalities and non-sequitors, one after the other. And mind you, this is a man who uses words for a living. The fact is, it's very hard to talk continuously, live, without an editor, for hours on end.

      So I appreciate the task. I just wish that when broadcasters were at a loss for something to say, they didn't fall back on the same old bromides, and instead went with their impulses and talked to us like fans. Or else they should go in the other direction -- get all technical and high-falutin' on us.

      When I first read Keith Hernandez's book Pure Baseball about 8 or 9 years ago, it was a revelation. Mex talked about the strategic cat-and-mouse games between pitcher and batter, the rationale behind various fielding schemes, and the intricacies of, say, holding runners on. After reading the book, I wondered why we don't get more of that talk from folks in the broadcast booth. I mean, there are some announcers who are good at that stuff (and Tim McCarver, for all his flaws, is one of the best), but we need more analysts who can actually analyze. That's practically the entire rationale for having ex-players up in the booth in the first place. But it often seems as if the guys who know a lot can't articulate what they know, and the guys who can articulate what they know don't know a lot. Frustrating.

      4. Glove Inflation

      This is almost a subset of Peeve #1: a tendency to dispense superlatives that aren't deserved, especially when it comes to defensive plays. This is true any time a fielder hits the turf. Doesn't matter how easy the play is -- even if it's one of those cleat-first sliding catches that 99% of big leaguers can pull off in their sleep -- if a guy leaves his feet you're bound to hear rhapsodies gushing from the booth.

      I remember last year in Kansas City Aaron Guiel made a running, leaping, backhanded grab in right field. But the broadcaster was so busy bursting an aneurysm to heap praise on Guiel that he didn't notice, on the replay, that Guiel was playing the hitter too far to pull, got an awful jump, and then took a big wide loopy route to the ball. Yes, he recovered to make the catch, but it was a very routine play with cosmetic enhancements.

      5. Misuse of Stats

      Big pet peeve. Most announcers are completely innumerate. It's bad enough that so few of them have adopted the language of sabermetrics, which long ago realized how overvalued fielding percentage was and how undervalued on-base percentage was. (For example, most broadcasters talk about what a great year Tony Womack is having because his batting average is 5th-best among NL leadoff hitters. Unfortunately his on-base percentage is only 11th-best among that same group.)

      But my bigger problem with announcers is their obsession with meaningless numbers. I'm sure a lot of this stuff is coming from some producer in the truck somewhere, but do we really need to know how a hitter does against any particular team? I mean, what do I care that Craig Biggio is hitting .310 lifetime against the Cardinals when I know that some of those ABs came against Joe Magrane? It says nothing about the matter at hand. Announcers in general are completely preoccupied with batter/pitcher matchups. You hear phrases like, "Roger Cedeno is hitting .400 against Brian Boehringer in his career." Yes. In five at bats.

      One of my favorite examples of booth innumeracy took place a couple weeks ago, when Mets broadcasters Keith Hernandez and Fran Healy were talking about Barry Bonds. Hernandez thought he was the greatest hitter on earth, whereas Healy thought Pujols may have passed him. Their exchange went like this:
      Hernandez: Do you know how hard it is to hit .352?

      Healy: Well, the argument against that is that Bonds gets a lot less chances to make outs.
      Chew on that one for awhile. You might find yourself entering the realm of no-mind, the way you would by pondering a zen koan for a really long time.

      Here's another fun example of statistical follies, from King Kaufman over at Salon.com:

      The Anaheim Angels had just scored a bunch of runs with two outs in their game against the Chicago White Sox Thursday when ESPN flashed a graphic saying the Angels score 40 percent of their runs with two outs. "Uh," thought I. "Is that a lot or a little?" I mean, it seems to me that a pretty healthy percentage of runs are going to score with two outs. There are only three possibilities -- no outs, one out or two outs -- so if everything were distributed evenly 33.3 percent of all runs would score with two outs. And since it sometimes takes a while to get runners around the bases, it makes sense that more than a third of the runs are going to score after two are gone…
      Forty percent just didn't seem that high to me, but analyst Buck Martinez launched into a lecture about how that stat reflects the Angels' scrappy personality, that they never give up on an inning, etc. and so on. It was a measure of their character, he said.

      As it turned out, at the beginning of that game the Angels had scored 39.3% of their runs with two outs. The AL average was 37%. Evidently that 2% difference was enough to prove whatever point Buck Martinez wanted to make about the Angels' tenacity, a view he probably held regardless of what the numbers said.

      6. The Myth of Continuous Motion

      I don't know what to call this one exactly, but it's definitely a pet peeve. It's when announcers linger over some mistake -- usually an error or a guy thrown out on the bases -- and harp on it as the key to everything that happens afterwards.

      Example: August 6th, Cards vs. Mets on FSN. Matt Morris leads off the inning by coasting into second on a throwing error by Kaz Matsui. Marlon Anderson pinch runs, and So Taguchi bunts him over. And the Mets broadcaster, Ralph Kiner, gripes, “So instead of two outs, now there’s a runner on third one out.”

      Wait a minute -- why did Kiner presume two outs? Didn't the whole inning change after the error? Isn't that what set up the Cards sacrificing out #1? But Kiner wouldn't stop harping on it, and it really got on my nerves. The fact is, you can't just hypothetically extract one play and assume that everything else would proceed unaltered. Every play in baseball begets every other play. And yet mark my words: the next time a guy hits a home run after a caught stealing, you'll never hear the end of it, even though the hitter probably got a fat pitch precisely because of the dude who got gunned down on the bases.

      7. Do the Hustle

      Al Hrabosky recently: “You gotta love Marlon Anderson – first-ball fastball hitter.” No, actually I don’t gotta love that. I mean, don't get me wrong. I like briskly played games, I like infield hits, and I like guys who sprint out of the box on a dead run (are you as amazed as I am these days at the number of guys standing and admiring their doubles off the wall?).

      I'll admit that hustle is more exciting than, say, sloth. But even more exciting than hustle are wins. Nonetheless, announcers still tend to reward spunk and aggressiveness, regardless of the context. If a guy is running all the way -- even it means he goes knee-first into an outfield wall, as Jim Edmonds did last year during a 12-3 blowout -- the boys in the booth will give him an A for effort. As Joe Sheehan once wrote,

      The thing about baseball that makes it different from other sports is that the absence of movement is often more valuable than movement. Not getting thrown out trying to advance is an invisible play that gets no reaction, whereas taking a base or getting thrown out trying is effort everyone can see. The learned behavior for baseball players is that the praise they get for hustling outweighs the criticism they receive for making bad decisions.

      This over-regard for hustle is part of a larger problem -- that is, the tendency of certain announcers to turn the scorebord into a moral battle. If a team wins, it's because they want it more; if they lose, it’s because they lack heart, or killer instinct, or whatever. Or so they say.

      You can see how broadcasters -- particularly ex-players -- might fall into this trap. After all, they themselves once played the game, and it's only natural that they framed their successes and failures in the most human terms. No one wants to think he succeeds because of some trend, or on account of the Law of Large Numbers. It's much easier to attribute on-field actions to attributes like hustle, or desire, or even chemistry.

      8. Tanker Trunks of Testosterone

      This pet peeve is related to the one above. Announcers -- and again, they're often ex-players -- tend to revere machismo. Many of these guys played in the late '60s and '70s, and blame many of the ills of the modern game to a lack of balls. The end result is a lot of Bob Gibson nostalgia and a lot of talk about how pitchers need to take back the inside of the plate. I guess it's true to some extent, but it's a hobby horse that announcers are all too willing to jump on.

      But it's not just talk about the inside of the plate -- it's the whole unwritten code among manly baseball men that leads to ridiculous opinions, such as this one from Jeff Brantley, who thought Mike Hampton should put So Taguchi flat on his ass for daring to bunt off him after a home run. It's all pretty annoying.

      9. Sap

      Sometimes the world of baseball broadcasting reminds me of Hollywood in the 1950's and '60s -- lot of a milquetoasts like Tab Hunter, Doris Day, and Rock Hudson. I'm praying that broadcasting will take the same route film did in the 1970's, when stars like Pacino, DeNiro, and Hoffman brought more unconventional voices, more ethnicity, and more rough edges to the movies.

      This is not to say that announcers should become a pack of shrill, yapping dogs (Steve Lyons and David Justice come to mind). But too many boothmen use the same vocal modulations, the same chipper inflections, on every play, as if they're recording a phone greeting for their answering machine.

      Contrast that with Joe Buck. Yes, he can come across at times as just another whitebread ironist, but he still has twice the personality of almost any announcer out there. Now, I'm sure some of you are thinking, "yeah, twice the annoying personality" -- but in some ways that's precisely the point. A good announcer should get under your skin. At least Buck mixes it up now and again and risks sounding silly or pissing people off. Hell, that was part of the fun of watching Howard Cosell all those years ago – he was someone to engage in, to argue with.

      I guess what I'm asking for is an authentic human voice out of the broadcast booth. What baseball needs is more people like Mike Shannon doing games. Or you know what? I would just settle for more people like you and me -- you know, fans.

      Tuesday, August 17, 2004


      JACKPOT Okay, this is getting ridiculous. The Cardinals are now at a point where if they play .500 ball for the rest of the season, they'll win 100 games. 100 games! They've won in the triple digits only once in the past 36 years -- only twice in the last sixty years -- and now, with seven weeks left in the season, it's just ours for the taking? What did we do to deserve this? Did the entire city of St. Louis lead the league in puppies saved, or volunteer minutes at the soup kitchen? Or is this some big set-up? Is Someone Upstairs telling us to sit down and enjoy it just so He can pull the chair out from under us?

      I don't even care anymore. The ride could end tomorrow and I'd still be thankful for all the thrills this team has given us. Take tonight's game. I missed the first five and a half innings, and turned on the TV to hear these words from Joe Buck:

      "Two outs now, so it'll be up to Matheny."

      And I'm thinking, screw Tinkers to Evers to Chance -- those are the saddest of possible words: "It'll be up to Matheny." Matheny, of course, bounced into a force out. And from what I could gather from the scoreboard, it seemed like it just wasn't the Cardinals' night.

      For starters, Brandon Claussen -- who had gotten bombed for 7 runs in only 3 innings his last outing -- was pitching a whale of a game. This was no mean feat, especially when you consider that Claussen is a lefty and we have guys who do this against southpaws:

                 AVG   OBP   SLG
      
      Walker .357 .500 .548
      Pujols .400 .490 .800
      Rolen .397 .543 .706
      Edmonds .329 .398 .598
      Renteria .444 .510 .700
      Mabry .359 .435 .564
      So for Claussen to be pitching so well -- only one run allowed in six innings -- it had to mean that the Cards' sterling 11-2 record against the Reds this year was about to take a hit. Or so I thought.

      Making matters worse, Matt Morris came out for the seventh having already thrown 106 pitches. And he really looked gassed. Felipe Lopez drilled a double off him to deep right, then Morris hit Jacob Cruz with a pitch. Ryan Freel helped Matty get the first out by bunting the runners over, but Morris was able to gather himself to get D'Angelo Jiminez on a force play at home.

      (Digression: Jiminez took a weak, defensive swing that resulted in the dribbler to Renteria, which set up the tag at home. Why did he take such a bad swing? Because he was in the hole 1-2 and wanted to put the ball in play to get the runners home. I saw some stats last weekend during the Cards-Braves game that sorta astounded me. They showed the league-wide batting averages for each pitch count. And here's what got me: for every single count in which the hitter does not have two strikes, he hits, on average, well over .300. And for every count with two strikes, batters hit well below .300. Maybe that doesn't surprise you, but I didn't know it was so black and white. It seriously seemed like players hit about .340 with fewer than two strikes and about .220 with two strikes on them. If anyone has the precise figures I'd love to see 'em, but it's changed the way I watch baseball. The odds of making an out shift dramatically with two strikes, and Jiminez's at bat tonight illustrated that.)

      Anyway, back to tonight's game. So Morris had two outs, runners on first and second, and seemed out of the inning... until he walked Sean Casey on four pitches. He was up to 123 pitches, was having trouble finding the plate, the bases were juiced, and Big Adam Dunn was at the dish. Mind you, Dunn is the major-league leader in HRs, and he's a lefthander. Morris has served up the most lefthanded home runs of any pitcher in baseball. Time to call in Steve Kline.

      And then the damnedest thing happened: La Russa let Morris pitch. Crazy? Perhaps. I mean, Morris got Dunn to ground out to shortstop (with two strikes, of course), but one could argue that this proves nothing, in the same way that getting hit on 17 and drawing a four doesn't prove you're a good black jack player.

      But in retrospect I think it's possible La Russa made a solid choice. The reality is that the Cards are 15 games up. Our primary goal is to win ballgames and capture the NL Central, but let's be honest -- a close second is to prepare our team for the playoffs. By allowing Morris to go toe-to-toe with one of the game's best sluggers, with all the chips on the table, La Russa was challenging his pitcher to bear down, focus, step up. And Morris responded, saying after the game, "I felt like my old self again. That's what I play the game for, to be in situations like that. And it's just nice [La Russa and Duncan] have the confidence in me to face the big lefthanded bats and get out of it."

      Now, I can't really argue against you if you think that's just a bunch of psychological hokum. But then again, I'm not a major-league pitcher, and I don't know what makes Matt Morris tick, and I'm open to the idea that he needed a kick in the pants. I mean, if Morris can't get the last out in the 7th inning of a fairly meaningless game in mid-August, how in the world will he be able to pitch in the cauldron of the NL playoffs? It was a gutsy move by La Russa, and in retrospect it seems like a pretty justifiable gamble.

      But of course, even after Matty Mo wriggled out of his jam, the Cards still had to win. No worries. In the bottom of the 8th the Cards got a hit by pitch to Rolen, an RBI single by Edmonds, a bases loaded walk to Womack, and then, of course, the grand slam (the one that Adam Dunn didn't hit an inning earlier) off the bat of Larry Walker. The Busch Stadium fans gave big valentines to Larry Walker before his first at bat in a Cardinal uniform, but that was just for being Larry Walker. This is the first time the hometown crowd gave him some love he actually had to work for. It was a nice moment.

      So this close game ended with a lopsided 7-2 score, another victory for the Cards. The team is now 55-18 since their middling 23-22 mark back on May 26th. That's twelve weeks ago. Here's how many losses the Cards have had each week since:

      1
      2
      2
      2
      3
      0
      1
      1
      2
      2
      0
      2

      I know most of you can grasp how incredible that is, but if there are any foreigners out there who happened to be raised on cricket and need a little guidance, I'll tell you this: baseball doesn't usually work that way. It's not like 400-meter swimming, where a Michael Phelps can employ good form and churn out a win simply by increasing his lead, inch by inch, with each repetitive stroke. See, a baseball season usually works more like pinball -- lots of up and downs, a few jackpots, lots of gutter balls.

      But not for this Cardinals team. They haven't had any serious setbacks or letdowns in almost three months. And every time you think the ball is going to roll in the gutter they ring the jackpot again. Seriously, it's getting ridiculous.

      Monday, August 16, 2004


      THE BOYS OF BRUMMER: THE ANSWERS Let's forget for a moment about tonight's ho-hum 10-5 win down at Busch, and instead take a stroll into the past. Last Saturday my brother and I posed a few trivia questions about the '82 Cardinals. Here are the answers:

      1. There are two Redbirds whose '82 season was their only season with the club. Who are they?

      ANSWER: Kelly Paris and Steve Mura

      Neither Paris nor Mura played in the postseason. Paris was traded in the offseason to the Reds for the immortal Tim Strichek, while Mura was plucked by the White Sox in the free-agent compensation draft and won only one more game in the bigs.

      2. If Joaquin Andujar hadn't been able to pitch Game 7 of the World Series because of his injured knee, who would have started in his place?

      ANSWER: Dave LaPoint

      I don't know if LaPoint would have dropped the ball in Game 7 of that Series, but he certainly did in Game 4. The Cards took a four-run lead on the Brewers into the seventh inning, but LaPoint bobbled a shovel pass from Keith Hernandez, the Brewers ended up batting around, and before you knew it the series was tied. Afterwards Herzog fumed about the dropped ball by the portly LaPoint, "If it was a cheeseburger he wouldn’t have dropped it!"

      3. In the middle of the season, Gussie Busch's wife asked which Cardinal to get her bags at the Grand Hyatt in New York, mistaking him for a bellhop?

      ANSWER: Tito Landrum

      The other anecdote you hear about Landrum -- which still makes the rounds in St. Louis -- is that he had an affair with Jack Buck's wife Carole. Uhh... doubtful. My favorite memory of Tito is from Game 4 of the '85 NLCS, when he collected two hits in one inning vs. the Dodgers.

      4. Which former Cardinal served up Willie McGee's first major league hit?

      ANSWER: Al Hrabosky

      McGee came into this game as a pinch hitter against the Mad Hungarian and promptly drove in Keith Hernandez and Gene Tenace.

      5. Complete this quote from Joaquin Andujar: "You can't worry if it's cold; you can't worry if it's hot; you only worry if you get sick, because..."

      ANSWER: The complete quote is "You can't worry if it's cold; you can't worry if it's hot; you only worry if you get sick, because if you don't get well, you die."

      So true.

      6. Keith Hernandez tried unsuccessfully to block his '83 trade to the Mets. To which team did he successfully block a trade the day before?

      ANSWER: The Houston Astros

      I have no idea how this went down, but that's the way it was reported in the book Whitey's Boys. If anyone has any details, please send them along.

      7. Three members of the '82 squad still reside in the Lou. Who are they?

      ANSWER: Bob Forsch, Ozzie Smith, and David Green

      8. There were 17 pitches in the '82 season in which the Birds tried a suicide squeeze. How many were successful?

      ANSWER: Fourteen

      Amazing. Of the three misses, two were fouls and only one was an out. People downplay "the little things" these days, but back then -- when the you could finish above .500 by scoring under four runs per game -- those successful squeeze plays were much more potent.

      9. Losing 5-4 in the ninth inning of game 2 of the World Series, which Brewer swung and missed a fastball on a hit-and-run, so that the runner was caught stealing?

      ANSWER: Robin Yount

      But Yount didn't miss many that year. His '82 season was the very best individual season of my entire baseball childhood (I became a serious fan around '79 or so). In fact, I don't think anyone bested Yount's '82 season until Barry Bonds in '93. McGwire probably passed him in '98, then Bonds turned around and passed him in '01. And I'm not sure anyone in my lifetime will surpass that season (unless it's Bonds himself).

      10. What pitcher did the Redbirds beat 14-3 on opening day in '82?

      ANSWER: Nolan Ryan

      Ryan righted himself to have a pretty good 1982, but check out this article if you want a fun read about the bad luck he experienced a few years later.

      11. Which member of the squad has a son in the Braves minor league system?

      ANSWER: Tom Herr

      His son Aaron plays for the Braves' AA affiliate in Greeneville. By the way, does anyone remember how often Jay Randolph, the Cards' old TV broadcaster, used to mention Herr's hometown of Lancaster, Pennsylvania?

      12. Which Cardinal yelped during the World Series victory celebration, "Hooo-ee! I been to two county fairs and a goat roast, and I ain’t never seen nothin’ like this!"

      ANSWER: Darrell Porter

      You can find this tidbit (and more!) at the post I had the most fun ever putting together, The Greatest Moments in (Recent) Cardinals History, Parts 1, 2, and 3.

      13. Dave LaPoint stumbled into the Cards' hotel lobby at 3 a.m. during a road trip to find who teaching a bellman how to throw a forkball?

      ANSWER: Cards' pitching coach Hub Kittle

      As long as I'm linking to old Redbird Nation pieces, here's our ode to Hub after he passed away earlier this year.

      14. Had the Angels defeated the Brewers in Game 5 of the ALCS and advanced to the series, which pitcher would have faced Bob Forsch in Game 1 of the World Series?

      ANSWER: Ken Forsch

      Can you imagine??? That would have made the cover of Sports Illustrated, People Magazine, and Der Spiegel all at once.

      15. Which Cardinal has performed in three plays at the Muny?

      ANSWER: Ozzie Smith

      In one of those plays he starred as the Wizard in "The Wizard of Oz." I kid you not.

      16. When the '82 Cards clinched the NL East on September 27th, how long was their longest losing streak?

      ANSWER: Three games

      Right after clinching, the Cards had a four-game losing streak, their longest of the season up to that point.

      17. David Green now owns a successful business that does what?

      ANSWER: Grooms dogs

      That detail tickles me, especially considering Green's hard road in the majors (after problems with alcohol, as well as constant fear for his family back in war-torn Nicaragua, Green's playing career was considered a bust).

      18. Which member of the '82 team appeared in the most World Series in his career?

      ANSWER: Lonnie Smith

      Lonnie went five times, with the Phillies in '80, the Cards in '82, the Royals (dang!) in '85, and the Braves in '91 and '92. He was pretty good in those Series too, popping four home runs, but he's best known for a faux pas he made in Game 7 of the '91 Series. He took off from first on a hit-and-run with no one out in the 8th, but didn't score on Terry Pendleton's double because Chuck Knoblauch deked him into thinking he was taking the relay. Lonnie was stranded at third and the Twins went on to win the game 1-0 in 10.

      Incidentally, the other members of the '82 Cards to win rings with other teams: Gene Tenace ('72-'74 A's), George Hendrick ('72 A's), Tito Landrum ('83 Orioles), Doug Bair ('84 Tigers), Dane Iorg ('85 Royals), and Keith Hernandez ('86 Fucking Mets).

      19. Who used to come to the ballpark early to learn a slidestep change from Dave LaPoint?

      ANSWER: Jim Kaat

      The amazing thing about that is that LaPoint was 22 at the time and Kaat was 43. That's about how old LaPoint is now.

      20. Every winter, which Cardinal pops in tapes of the Birdinals' World Series wins and watches them again?

      ANSWER: Ken Oberkfell

      One time my Dad and my brothers sat next to Ken Oberkfell's parents at a ballgame. They had driven from central Illinois and were literally straight off the farm. Supposedly they were also the nicest folks you could possibly imagine, just thrilled that their son had made good in the bigs. Add in the fact that Obie still gets fired up by our '82 champion team and I think that earns him a spot in the Redbird Nation Hall of Fame.


      Sunday, August 15, 2004


      SLOPPY SECONDS There was a sense coming into tonight's game that the Cards were getting a little rudderless. They had just dropped two of three, with both losses among our sloppiest games on the season -- first Thursday's pratfall in Florida, then Saturday's clunker, which featured Jason Marquis' worst start in over two months, a key flyball lost in the sun, and a late blown lead.

      Tonight's game figured to be more of the same. Danny Haren was pitching, the Cubs were making it awfully easy to coast for a few games, and during the pregame show ESPN's Rece Davis said that the Braves saw this series as an NLDS preview whereas Jim Edmonds thought it might be a good chance for the players to pad their stats. Okay, that wasn't exactly how Rece put it, but that was the gist of it.

      But if there's one lesson we've learned about this Cardinals squad, it's that they're virtually slump-proof. And oddly enough, it was the Braves who looked like they were sleepwalking tonight. They bobbled a few balls, threw wildly a couple times, threw to the wrong base at least three times, and allowed Reggie Sanders to take second after the Braves infield fell into mass hypnosis following a foul pop-out -- a true stolen base if there ever was one. In the second inning alone the Tomahawks gave the Birdos about 12 extra outs.

      You'd like to think the Cards would have won this game even without the Christmas gifts -- after all, they did get two moon shots from Rolen and a home run by Pujols (one of the rare players who can go deep even when he gets cheated on his swing). But the early lead did wonders for Danny Haren's confidence. He looked a bit scattershot early on, but after the second he was able to come right after hitters, walking no one and bringing high heat all evening long. All in all, it was a good win and a surprisingly effective road trip. Some additional notes:

    • If this was, as the Braves would have it, an NLDS preview, then who on the other side should we look out for? Three guys in particular stand out: Rafael Furcal, Marcus Giles, and Chipper Jones. Here are their lifetime stats against the pitchers on our staff:
    •             AVG   OBP   SLG
      
      Furcal .390 .429 .542
      Giles .341 .362 .682
      C. Jones .340 .478 .660
    • The two managers in this series, Bobby Cox and Tony La Russa, have combined for 4,057 wins at the helm. Just for comparison's sake, the other NL skippers have, put together, 6,898 managerial wins.


    • Pujols is tied for the league lead in homers, with 36, along with fellow 24-year-old Adam Dunn. I thought it would be unusual for guys that young to lead their league in dingers, but a brief look at Baseball-Reference.com tells me that lots of guys led their league in homers at younger ages: Glaus, Griffey, Juan Gonzalez, Canseco, McGwire, Bench, Tony Conigliaro, Killebrew, Mantle, Mays, Kiner, Ted Williams, Mel Ott, Babe Ruth. Not bad company, though.


    • With the Braves now out of the way, only 4 of the Cardinals' final 14 regular-season series are against teams with a record currently above .500. (The Cubs are in even better shape -- they don't play a team with a record above .500 unti the last weekend of the season.)


    • This is only the second series the Cardinals have ever won at Turner Field. Entering this season, they had played nine series in the Braves' ballpark and won only once, in August of 2000.

    • OUR VERY OWN WILLIS REED Was anyone else out there terrified by the image of Albert Pujols rounding first base after his home run on Friday night? He looked very gimped-up -- like Forrest Gump before the leg braces came off -- and I started to wonder if it made sense to rest him while he deals with an agonizing case of plantar fasciitis.

      I guess Pujols answered my concerns by going 6-for-13 with four yard jobs over the weekend. And if there's anyone out there who runs roughshod through pain, it's Pujols. But still, I worry about the guy. Tonight he beat out an infield hit with a sprint you could have timed with a sun dial. And I have too many memories of postseason teams done in by injuries and Cardinals playing at far less than 100%:

      1985: Vince Coleman
      1987: Jack Clark, Terry Pendleton
      1996: Ray Lankford
      2000: Rick Ankiel, Mike Matheny
      2001: Mark McGwire
      2002: Scott Rolen

      This might be a lot to ask, but I really want to see how far we can go if all our ducks are healthy.


      FILLER Joe Sheehan has an interesting article about all the unpredictable years from pitchers around the league. Perpetual waste cases like Jaret Wright and Ryan Drese are rolling. Shawn Estes has gone 13-4 pitching half his games in Coors Field. And Mark Prior has fewer wins and a higher ERA than last year's 21-game loser, Mike Maroth.

      Crazy year, huh? But as Sheehan points out, every year is crazy when it comes to pitchers. That's the nature of the profession. Even someone like Randy Johnson, who's as tall and reliable as Old Faithful, was at one time a Nuke LaLoosh in the making -- all gas, no valve. Which is why it's important to keep Sheehan's counsel in mind:

      Whether it's the physical toll, the mental strain or just the way the world spins, the vast majority of pitchers are completely unpredictable. They get good, and they get bad, and they get to all points in between, and they do so randomly. This is why, when it comes to building a team, I don't see any need to spend money on the middle of the pitching bell curve. If you can invest in the top tier, then you should do so. Get Johnson or Greg Maddux or Roger Clemens. Money spent on the Sidney Ponson class is money thrown away, because the chances of getting three straight good years from a guy like that is tiny. So you build a staff around the very best, then fill in around it with low-risk gambles and guys you develop.
      What does all this have to do with the St. Louis Cardinals? Well, that's pretty much exactly how our present team was contructed. Walt Jocketty took a $500,000 flyer on Chris Carpenter, who was recovering from a bum wing. He had to give up J.D. Drew to get (among others) Jason Marquis, but Marquis only costs $530K in salary, which in turn gave Jocketty the latitude to sign Jeff Suppan for $3 million per (or less than a quarter what the Angels are paying Bartolo Colon in exchange for his 5.59 ERA).

      Of course, you could argue that the Cards are overpaying for their other two starters -- over $16 million for one year of Matt Morris (a weak year at that) and Woody Williams (solid, but not overpowering). But for a pitching staff that seemed to have a lot of holes entering the season, Walt Jocketty, to his credit, paid a fair price for Spackle.


      I HAVE A CONFESSION. I like Chipper Jones. Now, I know that's heresy in these parts -- my sister, for example, can't stomach the guy, and most Cards fans I know are put off by the way he kills Cardinals pitching, or the fact that he fathered a child with a woman not his wife, or perhaps they're just turned off by his shit-eating sneer. But I think Chipper is baseball's Andre Agassi -- a brash kid who became very famous very fast, then became much more generous and contemplative as he aged. In some ways those guys are more impressive to me than the ones who were by-the-books gents all along.

      Anyway, there's no point to any of this, just a long wind-up to intro'ing this quote from Chipper Jones about the St. Louis Cardinals:

      "That may be one of the best lineups I've ever seen. Last year's [Braves] lineup doesn't compare to that one. They've got an All-Star at every position. I've already given them a nickname - the Yankees of the Midwest."
      Admit it -- Chipper is starting to grow on you too, isn't he?

      Friday, August 13, 2004


      THE BOYS OF BRUMMER The last World Champion Cardinals team has been on my mind lately -- maybe it was my mention of Ozzie and Whitey in yesterday's post; maybe it's because we seem primed to make another run at a world title. Or maybe it's because we're playing the Braves, who would be our first-round playoff opponent if the regular season ended today, just as they were back in 1982.

      Whatever the case, I thought it might be fun to play 20 Questions and ask you some trivia from that 1982 season. Each question was drawn up by my brother, The Judge, with an assist from the book Whitey's Boys by Rob Rains and Alvin Reid. I wish I could print the answers upside-down at the bottom of your computer screen, but I suppose flipping your monitor over would be rather unwieldy. Instead I'll give the answers on Tuesday. In the meantime, enjoy...

      1. There are two Redbirds whose '82 season was their only season with the club. Who are they?

      2. If Joaquin Andujar hadn't been able to pitch Game 7 of the World Series because of his injured knee, who would have started in his place?

      3. In the middle of the season, Gussie Busch's wife asked which Cardinal to get her bags at the Grand Hyatt in New York, mistaking him for a bellhop?

      4. Which former Cardinal served up Willie McGee's first major league hit?

      5. Complete this quote from Joaquin Andujar: "You can't worry if it's cold; you can't worry if it's hot; you only worry if you get sick, because..."

      6. Keith Hernandez tried unsuccessfully to block his '83 trade to the Mets. To which team did he successfully block a trade the day before?

      7. Three members of the '82 squad still reside in the Lou. Who are they?

      8. There were 17 pitches in the '82 season in which the Birds tried a suicide squeeze. How many were successful?

      9. Losing 5-4 in the ninth inning of game 2 of the World Series, which Brewer swung and missed a fastball on a hit-and-run, so that the runner was caught stealing?

      10. What pitcher did the Redbirds beat 14-3 on opening day in '82?

      11. Which member of the squad has a son in the Braves minor league system?

      12. Which Cardinal yelped, during the World Series victory celebration, "Hooo-ee! I been to two county fairs and a goat roast, and I ain’t never seen nothin’ like this!"

      13. Dave LaPoint stumbled into the Cards' hotel lobby at 3 a.m. during a road trip to find who teaching a bellman how to throw a forkball?

      14. Had the Angels defeated the Brewers in Game 5 of the ALCS and advanced to the series, which pitcher would have faced Bob Forsch in Game 1 of the World Series?

      15. Which Cardinal has performed in three plays at the Muny?

      16. When the '82 Cards clinched the NL East on September 27th, how long was their longest losing streak?

      17. David Green now owns a successful business that does what?

      18. Which member of the '82 team appeared in the most World Series in his career?

      19. Who used to come to the ballpark early to learn a slidestep change from Dave LaPoint?

      20. Every winter, which Cardinal pops in tapes of the Birdinals' World Series wins and watches them again?


      Thursday, August 12, 2004


      DECISION '04 So the Cardinals brass has offered Tony La Russa a two-year contract extension. TLR says he won't talk turkey in-season, but he's certainly in a more enviable negotiating position than he was just nine months ago. Back in November I suggested that 2004 would be La Russa's last season in the Lou. I figured either he'd win it all (in which case he'd go out on top) or he'd fall short once again (in which case it'd be clear that La Russa would never win the big one for the Cardinals).

      Either situation could play out, but a third scenario has emerged -- that is, that La Russa (and his kemosabe, Dave Duncan) would be so sound, so steady in the regular season that it would be foolish not to acknowledge their worth to the team, regardless of postseason hardware.

      Some of you, I'm sure, would prefer to wait on La Russa. Perhaps you think we should measure him at the end of the season, and I can see the logic. After all, we've been through torrid regular seasons in 1996, 2000, 2001, and 2002 -- what we really want is a ring. And if TLR has some limitations that make him a poor tactical general in the postseason, then screw him. He's as good to us as Ken Boyer, Vern Rapp, and all the other knuckleheads who never won it all for the Birds on the Bat.

      Yet I think -- and I can't believe I'm writing this (I first had to swallow a lot of bile Tony called up in me over the years) -- that this La Russa guy might be a keeper. I've said this before, but my philosophy is that most managers are neither good nor bad. Each of them brings something to the table that works well in one circumstance but may backfire horribly in another. (Witness Joe Torre, whose relaxed hand is ideal for the Yankees caught in the psychodramas of King George, but awful for the Rebuilding Redbirds of the early '90s.) I think La Russa and Duncan's penchant for focus and preparation, as well as their fine work with rehabbing pitching arms, is a nice fit for our current roster.

      And what of the idea that La Russa can't take us over the top? Ozzie Smith -- who's on Year 8 of his vow of petulancy -- recently appeared on the Marlins broadcast to remind everyone that La Russa hasn't won a ring in St. Louis. True enough. I mean, Herzog had us in the Big Dance three times, whereas La Russa, who came close in '96 but fell a Maddux and a Glavine short, hasn't gotten us there once. And he's had some big budgets and even bigger superstars to help him out.

      But remember, La Russa has had a much tougher row to hoe than Whitey when it comes to the postseason, for no other reason that there is now an extra layer of playoffs as there were in the 1980's. If you lay La Russa's and Herzog's track record in St. Louis side-by-side, you get something like this:


      Years Division Won 1st round Won 2nd round
      in STL Titles of playoffs of playoffs
      La Russa 8 4 3 0
      Herzog 10 3 3 1

      I realize I'm not comparing apples to apples here, but still, Tony doesn't stack up as unfavorably as one might think.

      (By the way, can I share one of my biggest pet peeves? It's when people say the Cards finished second to the Astros in 2001 and entered the postseason as the NL Wild Card. The Cardinals were co-division champs that year and, for seeding purposes, played the team with the best overall record. They were not the Wild Card.)

      Anyway, the point is that La Russa is solidifying his argument to manage the Cardinals in 2005 and beyond. I'm sure when the playoffs roll around Tony will do something that'll make us want to disassociate his limbs from the rest of his body. But as of this afternoon the Cards are 74-39 -- can you really argue that another manager would be better for us right now?


      THE WIND AND THE STRETCH... From Will Carroll in today's Under the Knife column:

      The cushion the Cards have in the standings never looked so good, but an old
      team with little depth winning more and more one-run games has the look of a
      team that could flame out in October.
      Dear Will,

      Nice try. You've been pretty good about keeping your Cubs-o-philia under wraps in your UTK column, but this latest jab at the Cardinals is faintly embarrassing. If the Cards are an old team, how do you rate the chances of the Phillies, Giants, Padres, and Cubs? Each of those teams is older, on average, than St. Louis. (The Cubs -- with Maddux, Mercker, Remlinger, Grudzielanek, Goodwin, Alou, and Sosa -- are the third oldest team in the NL.)

      And last I checked, the Cards were one of the deeper teams around. All five of our starters have plus Support-Neutral Wins Above Average totals (only 3 other NL teams can say that), and we have a few fathoms worth of good arms out of the pen (ranked third best in the league). Our bench won't win any awards, but Cedeno has been quite good and our fourth outfielder, Mr. John Mabry, is ripping it up (.336/.418/.541).

      As for winning all those one-run games, Will, I know you'd like to turn that into a negative (the same way you tried to spin the acquisition of Larry Walker as something that would doom the Cards in 2005). But I was under the impression that it was better to win by one run than lose by one, two, three, or four runs, all of which the Cubs have done in the past two series alone.

      I mean, look, no one is claiming the Cards don't have weaknesses -- and yes, we're all worried that guys like Pujols and Rolen and Carpenter have been playing with pain -- but saying the Cards have "the look of a team that could flame out" is, frankly, beneath you.

      Your friend,
      Brian


      HURRICANE EASLEY This had all the hallmarks of a getaway game -- five starters sitting on the Cards bench, nobodies like Damion Easley having fun, a lot of distracted play, and a brisk pace (there was a rain delay early, but otherwise the game was over in 2:21). The Cardinals had added incentive to skip town in a hurry, what with Hurricane Charley about to clobber the Florida coast.

      I didn't actually see the game, but it sure reads ugly. In the third inning, Marlon Anderson failed to cover second on a bunt and then, two batters later, threw the ball away. Two runs scored on account of those flubs. In the seventh the Cardinals gave up more runs than they had in the past four games combined. There were yet more miscues (throwing error by Molina, fielding error by Pujols, a guy reaching on a bunt), as well as a flashback to April and May, with Jason Simontacchi coming in from the pen and blowing the game wide open.

      Given the Cards stellar defense in the first two nights of this series, plus their seven-game winning streak, plus their run of one-run wins, I think it's only fair to allow this team an off-game. I'd almost forgotten this, but off-games do happen.


      Wednesday, August 11, 2004


      THE RAGE FOR PERFECTION I have a couple good friends who are Yankees fans, and they're frequently asked, "Don't you get sick of winning every year? I mean, you have 26 world titles -- isn't that enough?" Set aside the notion that the Yanks win every year; the fact is, winning never gets old. I learned this in 2000 with the St. Louis Rams. After they won the Super Bowl that year I thought, well, that'll tide me over for the next several seasons. But sure enough, autumn rolled around and I wanted the Rams to win as badly as ever. When things are going well you turn into an armchair Patton: you expect victory to be absolute, not occasional.

      Thus I find myself with the 2004 Cardinals -- I've turned into a glutton for winning. How much is too much? A 12.5-game lead in August? A 74-38 record? The answer is it's never enough. How else to explain the knot in my stomach in the bottom of the ninth tonight? I mean, in the broad scheme of things the game meant virtually nothing. But we're no longer competing with the rest of our division so much as we're competing with an ideal of perfection, with the ghosts of Cardinals past. It's simply thrilling to see how good this team can be. For some reason I'm reminded of the final words from the movie The Right Stuff (which give me chills every time I hear them):

      On that glorious day in May 1963, Gordo Cooper went higher, farther, and faster than any other American -- 22 complete orbits around the world; he was the last American ever to go into space alone. And for a brief moment, Gordo Cooper became the greatest pilot anyone had ever seen.
      That's where I want to go -- higher, farther, and faster than any Cardinals team of my lifetime. Is that too much to ask? Of course it is. But I'll ask anyway.

      Now a few notes about tonight's game:

    • The Cards' pitching staff pitched a "wraparound no-hitter" from last night to tonight -- 9 straight complete innings without giving up a hit.


    • Womack singled leading off the game and was promptly thrown out trying to steal. Yet another reason why Womack should be hitting lower in the order. He's a good enough base stealer (18-5 on the year) to take a chance now and again, but he should never ever try to steal early in the game with our big boys due up after him.


    • Speaking of our big boys, I learned tonight that Larry Walker suffers from triphilia. He wears #33, must wake up at 33 minutes past the hour, takes practice swings in the on-deck circle divisible by three (either 3, 6, or 9 swings), and must use the third shower head when washing after games. Wonder if the Cards should consider batting him third.


    • That collective sigh you heard was Redbird Nation rejoicing after Jeff Suppan brought his A-game to Pro Player tonight. It was his second 8-inning two-hitter of the year (the last time he did that we lost), and probably his best game since April of 2002. Considering Jeff's recent struggles, his mini-masterpiece came at the perfect time.


    • Now, about Jeff's hitting... Last year he finished third among all pitchers with a .279 batting average (and if you exclude Kieschnick, he came in second). And yet somehow he's laying a goose egg for 2004: zero for 39. Only 7 hitters have gone hitless with more than 39 at bats in a season. The all-time futility champ is Bob Buhl -- oh for 70 in 1962. (Rightabout now I can hear Bob Carpenter shouting, "Seventy!")


    • Renteria was thrown out trying to steal third with one out in the sixth. It was close, but replays showed he was safe (it was the most animated I've ever seen Renteria -- he knew he was safe). Afterwards ESPN announcer Jeff Brantley said, "you can't be the second out at third base... You have to be absolutely positive that you're going to make it." (a) Since when is it an unwritten rule to avoid the second out at third base? If you make it the upside is huge (your odds of scoring a run improve almost 40%). (b) Brantley implied that it wasn't enough for Renteria to be barely safe -- he had to be absolutely positively safe. That's bullshit. If he's safe, he's safe. Why is it incumbent on him to overcompensate?


    • Rolen made an exquisite play in the 7th inning, charging in to barehand Miguel Cabrera's wobbler, then throwing a laser to Pujols to nip him by a half-step. The only guy I've ever seen make that play as well or as consistently was Mike Schmidt, and I'm not sure even Schmitty had the arm stregth to do what Rolen did tonight. What a talent.


    • The Cards have now won four games by the score of 1-0. Our record in games in which we score exactly one run is 4-6. Who says our team is nothing but mashers?


    • SWEET STUFF This two-part article (here and here) by Steve Treder is one of the best pieces of baseball writing I've read all year, up there with Nate Silver's breakdown of the Atlanta Braves in the 2004 Baseball Prospectus, Alex Belth and Rich Lederer's look at Yank teammates Bernie Williams and Derek Jeter, Frank Deford's piece on the odd partnership of Christy Mathewson and John McGraw, and Mark Armour and Dan Levitt's profile of Hoyt Wilhelm from their book Paths of Glory.


      REGARDING THE CHICAGO CUBS: There are two main camps among Cardinals fans, and they break down like this:

      Camp 1 believes that the Cubs and Cards constitute one of the great rivalries in all of sports, and that it's a shame their head-to-head series came to an end on July 20th, before the Cubs got Nomar, before the September stretch drive. The only true, proper stage for these venerable combatants, then, is the NLCS. No backdoor routes to the World Series allowed -- let these two teams go mano a mano, winner gets a ticket to the Fall Classic.

      Camp 2 doesn't want the Cubs in the playoffs at all, but to understand why you need to break them down further:

      Camp 2(a) fears that the Cubs, when healthy, are a powerhouse that shouldn't be messed with. Only bad luck has prevented them from a record as good as the Cardinals' (okay, maybe not as good, but at least in the same zip code). Therefore, if the Cards do indeed finish the regular season with the NL's best record, why jeopardize our title chances by facing a team that is, for all intents and purposes, more dangerous than the Braves, Dodgers, Padres, Giants, or Phillies? Especially if the Cards prove themselves so superior over 162 games? (The rebuttal to Camp 1 is that if no backdoor routes to the Series are allowed, then that means no Wild Card teams beating up on our Redbirds).

      Camp 2(b) makes an argument against the Cubs based in spite more than fear. In short, they believe that the Cubs and all their fans are reprehensible losers, and that the further they're blown out of the playoffs, the better, especially considering the way they gloated over the Cardinals' bloody carcass last September.

      Now, I'm pretty firmly in Camp 2a (although in rare moments I fall into 1 and 2b as well), but Dayn Perry -- himself a Cards fan -- makes a pretty convincing case for Chicago as the runaway favorite for the NL Wild Card. The Cubs have a very favorable schedule down the stretch; they play 26 of their remaining 48 games at Wrigley; and, most importantly, their hitting and pitching numbers -- especially when you adjust for schedule and other random elements -- show that they are far and away the strongest of the Wild Card contenders. In other words, we should prepare to see the Cubs in the playoffs regardless of what we wish.


      THE MURDERER'S ROW OF MURDERER'S ROWS A couple weeks back I asked if the Cards had the best heart of the order in all of baseball. I was thinking much to small. This article by Chaim Bloom and Keith Woolner claims that the gauntlet of Walker-Pujols-Rolen-Edmonds is not just the best murderer's row this year, it might be the best of all-time. Or at least the best in over 100 years:

      When we look at the top four batters instead of the top five, we see that this year's Cardinals, with Pujols's .463 MLVr their fourth-best, are second all-time behind only the 1894 Phillies. By that measure, the heart of this Cardinals lineup is the best in modern baseball.
      Of course, there are still 50 games to play, so take these rate stats are bound to drop, but still -- pretty damn impressive.

      Tuesday, August 10, 2004


      YOUR ENERGY EFFICIENT CARDINALS If the division race were closer, every fingernail in Redbird Nation would look like a chew toy after tonight's game. Instead it was a nice, relaxing, well-matched game between two good teams, with the Cards (I should seriously create a macro for this phrase) coming out on top. Let's go to the notes, shall we?

    • Nice to see Larry Walker hitting second -- a great place to take advantage of his .466 OBP, plus by going lefty-lefty-righty-righty-lefty-righty, it doesn't give opposing managers much room to manuever.


    • In the 1st, Paul Lo Duca legged a single into a double when Edmonds was slack to pick up his hit to right center. I noted last year that the Dodgers -- especially Shawn Green -- tended to run on Edmonds on base hits, and I'm wondering now if Lo Dookie remembered a thing or two from the advance scouting reports in L.A.


    • Beckett looked like World Series Beckett tonight. His fastball had extra bite, and he was getting that fork-change over. I'm told he could ease his blister problems if only he'd take up the guitar (which hardens your callouses), but Beckett chooses to be a rock and not to roll.


    • Weird moment in the 3rd: Cal Eldred wound up, delivered, and had the ball squirt out of his hand and dribble toward third base. At first I was thinking it was the worst pitch I'd ever seen (I'm sure we'll be seeing it on Jumbotrons for the next dozen years or so), but it turns out it wasn't a pitch at all. According to the rule book, "A PITCH is a ball delivered to the batter by the pitcher" -- which I guess means the ball must at least cross the pitching rubber to be considered an official pitch. I guess.


    • Marlon Anderson is now 4-for-45 since July 1st. 4-for-45! Among 323 major leaguers with 150 or more plate appearances, Anderson's .268 OBP ranks... get this... 310th. Remind me again why we're planning on dumping Lankford?


    • With 7.2 shutout innings of relief tonight, our relievers have now allowed, on the season, 101 earned runs in 303 innings, which works out to a precise 3.00 bullpen ERA (second best in baseball, handily). Compare that to last year's 4.60 bullpen ERA, then file it away for the winter, when you and your friends get into a furious, drunken argument about Walt Jocketty's credentials for Executive of the Year.


    • Here's another pair of stats that just may be related to the ones I just mentioned. Cards road record, 2003: 37-44. Cards road record, 2004: 37-17.


    • While we're on goofy stats, how bout this one: the Cardinals' lead over the Astros is now greater than the Braves' lead over the Expos.


    • Edmonds evidently read our paean to him on Redbird Nation yesterday and thanked us with his game-winning bomb in the top of the 10th. Okay, maybe it's not Babe Ruth hitting a homer for some leukemic kid in the hospital, but we're grateful all the same.


    • Cardinals hitters tonight were as energy efficient as a Toyota Prius. Only three batters reached second base all night, and two of them scored. And with more than twice as many strikeouts as baserunners, our lineup didn't really do much of anything -- except win. Perhaps that's why Edmonds jogged off the field at the end of the game laughing and shaking his head. Translate that body language into English and you get: "Did we really win that thing?"


    • Monday, August 09, 2004


      [NOTE: What follows is a first for Redbird Nation -- a piece with two authors. My buddy Richard Lederer, who runs the fantastic Rich's Weekend Baseball Beat, emailed me a couple weeks ago about the greatness of Jim Edmonds. The following profile is a result of our lengthy discussions since that time. So kick back and enjoy!]

      THE MOST UNDER-OVER-UNDERRATED PLAYER IN BASEBALL
      By Brian Gunn and Richard Lederer

      In a fine article published last Friday in the New York Times, Lee Jenkins made the Cardinals sound like an army unit from a World War II propaganda film – they’ve got the aw-shucks hick Scott Rolen, the Bible-quoting Latino Albert Pujols, and Jim Edmonds, "who scales fences and streaks his hair, drives a Ferrari, and goes by the name of 'Hollywood.'" Indeed, at first blush Jim Edmonds seems like every jock you went to high school with – note the cocky swagger, the loping gait, the beefy shoulders and hammy thighs. He’s the very picture of California cool.

      But put Jim Edmonds in a batter’s box and he’s transformed. Gone are the heavy eyelids and the cavalier attitude, and they’re replaced with something else altogether – a series of rituals, neuroses, and tics. He grimaces, jabbers with umpires and catchers, steps out to do calisthenics or pace around or talk to himself. Just last week he had an at-bat where he leaned in from a pitch on ball four, then righted himself by staggering toward the visitors’ dugout. His route was practically Magellan, perhaps the only time in the history of baseball a guy walked 120 feet to get to first. Last year in San Diego, Edmonds swung at a pitch, dropped the bat, clutched his right shoulder, doubled over in pain, caught his breath, then picked up the bat with his left hand and continued hitting! The whole thing was as melodramatic and masochistic as the Stations of the Cross: Edmonds is Condemned to Die, Edmonds Swings a First Time, Edmonds is Laid in the Tomb.

      ............................................................*****

      That’s Jim Edmonds for you – one of the most mercurial players in the game, and perhaps the only one to catch grief for being both under-emotional and over-emotional. He’s been called, variously, a showboat, a stud, a lazybones, a workhorse, a whiner, a powerhouse, an overachiever, an underachiever, you name it. But let us submit to you one label you almost never hear in relation to Jim Edmonds: Hall of Famer.

      Hall of Famer? Jim Edmonds? The guy who’s finished in the top ten in MVP balloting exactly once? The player who’s never led the league in any hitting category, who’s not even halfway to 3,000 hits, who has fewer career homers than Kent Hrbek? Is that the Cooperstown Jimmy Edmonds you’re talking about?

      Let us say right off the bat that Hall of Fame arguments have become increasingly degraded and muddled over the years. Part of this is due to a phenomenon that Bill James put his finger on years ago. See, the HOF is a self-defining institution; that is, a Hall of Famer is no more and no less than someone in the Hall of Fame. Therefore, if you want to make a case that your guy belongs in the Hall, all you have to do is prove he’s better than the lowest fungus taking up space in Cooperstown (Rick Ferrell, anyone?), and he’s in.

      So let’s clear away some of the muddle and ask a couple simple questions to establish Hall credentials. Is he one of the top two players of his era at his position? (Think Mike Schmidt and George Brett.) And/or is he one of the dozen greatest players ever at his position? (That’s roughly one HOFer per decade at each position.) And then let’s stop right there. Does Jim Edmonds meet those standards?

      Let’s take a look. There are three center fielders who have stood out during the current era. Despite a disappointing homecoming in Cincinnati, Ken Griffey Jr. has put up the best numbers of any CF in baseball during this time, hands down. The battle for second best is a close one between Bernie Williams and Jim Edmonds. Two opposites. Night and day. Big market, small market. San Juan, Puerto Rico vs. Orange County, California.

      What Williams and Edmonds share in common are highly productive playing careers that have not registered on the average fan’s radar screen to the extent that they deserve. If it’s true that players who rank at or near the top of their position for a decade or longer are worthy of HOF consideration, then it’s time to take a bow to Bernie and Jim.

      Runs Created Above Average
      Center Fielders, 1995-2004
      Position Classified By Season
                                      RCAA
      
      1 Jim Edmonds 340
      2 Bernie Williams 339
      3 Ken Griffey Jr. 287
      *Through 8/7/04

      Source: Sabermetric Baseball Encyclopedia

      Not only is Edmonds number one, he clearly has the most momentum of the trio and seemingly the brightest future. In fact, the product of Diamond Bar High School (Calif.) is on his way to perhaps his best season ever in 2004.

      Jim Edmonds
      2004 Statistics and League Ranking


      OPS               1.062          6th
      
      SLG .649 2nd
      OBP .414 3rd
      Tot Avg. 1.186 3rd
      HR 30 T4th
      TB 229 7th
      BB 67 T10th
      Runs 75 8th
      RBI 79 T5th

      ............................................................*****

      The top five center fielders of all time are some of the most revered names in the game’s history. Ty Cobb, Tris Speaker, Joe DiMaggio, Mickey Mantle, Willie Mays. MVPs all. You might debate their order, but there is no denying that these five are in a league of their own when it comes to center fielders. This quintet led the league in batting average 17 times and home runs 12 times.

      The sixth and seventh spots on the list of greatest center fielders are as etched in stone as the top five. Duke Snider and Ken Griffey Jr. are without a doubt the best of the rest. Over 900 homers and twelve titles.

      That leaves number eight up for grabs. Using Hall of Famers as a first cut, the candidates include (in alphabetical order) Richie Ashburn, Earl Averill, Max Carey, Earle Combs, Larry Doby, Kirby Puckett, Edd Roush, Lloyd Waner, and Hack Wilson.

      Other than Puckett, all of the players in the paragraph above were passed over by the Baseball Writers Association of America and elected by the Veterans Committee decades after their playing careers ended. Of these eight, only Averill (133), Combs (126), Doby (136), Roush (126), and Wilson (144) had adjusted on-base plus slugging averages (OPS+) greater than 111. Other retired CF of significance with OPS+ totals above 120 include Wally Berger (138), Fred Lynn (130), Jimmy Wynn (128), and Dale Murphy (121). However, only Lynn played at least 100 games in CF for more than seven years.

      Edmonds played his 100th game in center field on Sunday and has now hit the century mark for nine years. Going into this season, Edmonds had an OPS+ of 135 and is currently on track to produce his fourth consecutive total of 150 or more -- a feat accomplished only by the Big Five, Snider, and Hack Wilson. Although Wilson put up HOF numbers from 1926-1930, his career was nearly as short as his 5’6” height and he was a notoriously poor defensive center fielder.

      Edmonds is already in the top 20 among CF in most of the important counting stats and in the top 10 in terms of rate stats. As the 34-year-old slugger ages, his rate stats may slip but his cumulative totals will continue to grow. Using Wins Above Replacement Value (WARP) and Equivalent Average (EqA) as proxies for counting and rate stats, we find there are only six CF who exceed Edmonds’ rankings in both categories. Yes, six!

      Granted, if Edmonds were to retire today, his career would look more like Fred Lynn’s than not (absent the ROY and MVP awards). However, Edmonds is fast approaching – and in many cases exceeding – the run creation totals of nearly every CF in baseball history not named Cobb, Speaker, DiMaggio, Mantle, Mays, Snider, or Griffey.

      Runs Created Above Average
      Center Fielders, Modern Era (1900-)
      Position Classified By Season


                                      RCAA
      
      1 Ty Cobb 1107
      2 Tris Speaker 1054
      3 Mickey Mantle 1009
      4 Willie Mays 1008
      5 Joe DiMaggio 672
      6 Ken Griffey Jr. 547
      7 Duke Snider 406
      8 Earl Averill 394
      9 Larry Doby 369
      10 Bernie Williams 354
      11 Jim Edmonds 340
      12 Hack Wilson 332
      13 Edd Roush 302
      T14 Fred Lynn 285
      T14 Jimmy Wynn 285
      *Through 8/7/04

      Source: Sabermetric Baseball Encylopedia

      True, Edmonds has never dominated any statistical category – the closest he came to leading the league was when he finished 3rd in the AL in runs as a youngster in 1997. But it’s also true that Edmonds is a classic multi-tool player who hits for average, hits for power, fields his position, and has a great arm. He’s sorta like the overlooked girl who never won any contests for best legs, lips, hair, or eyes, yet was considered one of the prettiest overall.

      ............................................................*****

      Almost every baseball fan – even casual baseball fans – can conjure up one highlight-reel play from Jimmy Edmonds. Maybe it’s the one from June of ’97, when he raced straight back and made a diving, over-the-shoulder grab at the base of the wall in Kaufmann Stadium (it won an ESPY, doncha know). Maybe it’s the time he deked out Sammy Sosa, pretended like he was going to catch a deep fly, then threw him out trying to score from second on a double. Or maybe it’s one of the four times over the past two years he leaped over the wall to rob a Cincinnati Red of a certain home run. (The last of these, when he made a running, leaping, backhanded snag of a drive by Jason LaRue on July 16th, is Edmonds’ personal favorite.)

      Now, we all know that great fielders are more than the sum of their flashy plays, but Jim Edmonds is perhaps the only guy in the league whose feats of derring-do at times work against him. Take this scouting report from Jim Edmonds’ player page on ESPN.com: "He will have lapses in concentration and occasionally seems to time his leaps and dives for dramatic effect."

      Anyone who’s ever fooled around with a baseball glove knows what ESPN is talking about. As a kid playing catch, you may have run after a thrown ball, waited ‘til the last second, then dove, sprawled, and held up the ball in triumph like you were on "This Week in Baseball." Some people say Jim Edmonds does this in the big leagues – plays for the cameras.

      Only one problem with this theory: Edmonds’ fielding stats are exceptional. If he’s going out of his way just to look good, why then do his numbers look so good? Bill James Win Shares system rates Edmonds an A+ fielder from 1993 to 2000 – the same grade given to Curt Flood, Willie Mays, and Tris Speaker. (Like Speaker, Edmonds plays an extremely shallow center, allowing him to snare the short stuff with enough wheels to flag down hits over his head.) The six-time Gold Glove winner hasn’t lost his mojo, ranking second among N.L. center fielders in fielding Win Shares through the first of August.

      Let’s tease out the numbers even further. How does Edmonds stack up with the best defensive center fielders of his era? The active CFers with four or more Gold Gloves are Edmonds, Griffey, Bernie Williams, Andruw Jones, Steve Finley, Marquis Grissom, and Kenny Lofton. Here’s how they rank in terms of range factor (putouts + assists /games):
      Jones      2.68
      
      Edmonds 2.59
      Williams 2.55
      Lofton 2.52
      Griffey 2.48
      Grissom 2.40
      Finley 2.32
      By this measure, only Andruw Jones covers more ground than Edmonds. Now of course, range factor is a pretty crude stat – a good range factor could result from a staff that gets lots of fly balls and strikes out very few. Nonetheless, it’s difficult to see how Edmonds could get to that many baseballs if he was primping and preening in the outfield.

      What about Edmonds’ supposed Howitzer of an arm? Well, here are the same seven Gold Glovers ranked by assists per 100 games:
      Edmonds     7.9
      
      Lofton 7.2
      Jones 7.2
      Griffey 6.9
      Finley 5.7
      Grissom 4.9
      Williams 3.4
      Again, this isn’t the be-all-end-all stat for measuring a guy’s arm, but common sense tells you that Bernie Williams belongs near the bottom of that list and Edmonds near the top. In other words, Edmonds might have his defensive lapses in the field, he might go for style points now and again, but it seems clear that Edmonds is much more than a Web Gem generator.

      ............................................................*****

      There have always been those who want to poke holes in these accomplishments. One favorite of the naysayers is that Edmonds will heat up big time – like in ’00, when he reached base in 12 straight plate appearances – and then he’ll just as suddenly go as cold as interstellar space.

      But if Jim Edmonds is a streaky player (and really, what player isn't?), then he certainly chooses the right times to go on a rampage. Case in point: over his career he’s brutalized division rivals Chicago, Houston, Cincinnati, and Pittsburgh, hitting .311/.421/.632 against them compared to .289/.375/.515 against everyone else. And Edmonds was largely responsible for the Cards’ furious stretch run in 2001, when he slugged .639 in August and September and helped the team hijack the division title.

      Edmonds also has a habit of stepping up large in the postseason. Overall he’s slugged .679 in five postseason series (and bopped at least one HR off of each foe). He simply destroyed Atlanta pitching in 2000, his first-ever playoffs. His slugging percentage for the three games: a ridiculous 1.286, including six extra-base hits and the game-winning jack in the clincher at Atlanta. (True story: There was a wedding taking place in St. Louis during this game. The groomsmen were all big Cardinals fans; the groom was not. So in order for the groomsmen to get updates on the game, guests in the back of the church – tuned into KMOX radio on mini-headphones – had to pass along the score via complicated hand signals. Edmonds went yard right around the time bride and groom were exchanging vows, and the place nearly erupted.)

      ............................................................*****

      Another stick used to poke holes in Jim Edmonds is that he’s just not durable enough. And there’s some evidence that Edmonds is not exactly an Iron Horse. His plate appearances over the last four years have dwindled (643 - 608 - 576 – 531). Last season he hit only .214 after the All-Star Break while battling various ailments. And earlier this year Edmonds griped to the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, "I'm tired of waking up with my feet numb and my right knee sore... If I was just sore and achy every day, that's no big deal. But waking up every morning and the first 10 steps I take my left foot is completely numb. I've had four knee surgeries, three shoulder surgeries. I want to play, but when it's time to retire, I'll get on with it."

      Nevertheless, the image of Edmonds as a guy held together by baling wire and chewing gum is a bit overblown. To wit: only five center fielders have played in 135+ games over each of the last four years – Andruw Jones, Steve Finley, Johnny Damon, Mike Cameron, and, yes, Jim Edmonds. And believe it or not, sometime this year Edmonds will likely pass Willie McGee for games in center field. Add in the fact that Edmonds seems to be getting better after age 30 and it becomes harder and harder to nag about his so-called lack of durability.

      ............................................................*****

      Despite all these talents, Jim Edmonds plays on perhaps the worst team to exploit his skills. Last year he led all center fielders in homers, walks, slugging percentage, and OPS, and yet he was only the fourth-best player on his own team. Over the last two years he has the 9th highest VORP (120.1) of any player in baseball – in other words, he’d be the biggest star on almost any team in the majors. In St. Louis, however, he comes in third, behind Pujols (#2, with 172.3) and Rolen (#7, with 128.0).

      But there are other reasons Edmonds isn’t a bigger name. Part of it is due to the odd practice whereby All-Star voters cast ballots for outfielders irrespective of left, center, or right. As a result, Edmonds – who’s been one of the top two center fielders in the league for each of the last five years – has never started on an All-Star team.

      But the reason there are doubts about Edmonds’ abilities has less to do with All-Star balloting, or the team he plays for, and more to do with something else: his character.

      ............................................................*****

      In 1992, when Edmonds was at Double-A Midland, Angels farm director Bill Bavasi gave this assessment of his young prospect: "His body language will drive you nuts." He wasn’t just talking about Edmonds’ swing – although if Edmonds grew up with a dad who coached Little League he’d have already corrected his son’s loopy tetherball swing and his tendency to bail out of the box.

      No, Bavasi wasn’t talking about Edmonds' mechanics so much as his cocky demeanor. Even after Edmonds burst on the scene, made the All-Star team in his first full season, and immediately took his place as one of the top two or three center fielders in the league, the Angels were not fully satisfied with his approach. They thought he should do something, anything – maybe dive into first base now and again, or get medieval on a water cooler – to show his martyrdom for the team. And Jimmy just wouldn’t do that.

      Edmonds bumpy tenure in Anaheim came to a head in the spring of 1999, when he had surgery on his right shoulder that would sideline him for the next four months. Players and coaches immediately questioned Edmonds’ motives for not getting the surgery over the winter. Chuck Finley said of Edmonds, “Jimmy’s biggest problem is Jimmy.” And in one notorious incident Mo Vaughn packed Edmonds’ suitcase and told him to leave if he didn’t want to be on the team.

      A funny thing happens when a player is on the outs: even his strengths become weaknesses. Edmonds’ awesome rookie campaign became an example of how he had wasted his potential, how he could be so much more if only he tried. Or every time he hit a huge home run, people would gripe about his annoying knack of turning his talents on and off at will. By the end of 1999 Edmonds was on the trading block.

      At the time the Angels were flush with four starting outfielders, and someone had to go (a logical enough thought for anyone not named Terry Ryan). Darrin Erstad had to stay – he was a former #1 draft pick and a media darling for his gung-ho approach to the game. Tim Salmon wasn’t going anywhere either – he had been a star even longer than Edmonds, and had the right kind of whole-milk attitude. Garret Anderson was younger than Edmonds and, better, more stoic and inoffensive. So GM Bill Stoneman – who took over for Bavasi in October 1999 – shipped Jim Edmonds out of Anaheim.

      ............................................................*****

      Of all the lopsided trades in baseball history, the Cards have made some doozies: Eric Ludwick for Mark McGwire, Bob Sykes for Willie McGee, Ernie Broglio for Lou Brock.

      But the discussion should probably include Kent Bottenfield and Adam Kennedy for Jim Edmonds. It was a classic Walt Jocketty trade: find an established veteran in a contract year, preferably one undervalued as a malcontent; trade either unproven prospects or peaking veterans to get him; deliver your new star to the loving arms of the St. Louis fan base; then lock him up to a long-term deal below market cost. You don’t normally think of Jocketty as the type of Moneyball wheeler-and-dealer who has to take risks on "men of questionable character," but remember that Jocketty, like Billy Beane, learned at the feet of Sandy Alderson, one of the great bargain-hunters of our time.

      This model fits perfectly with Jocketty’s resources. After all, St. Louis – only the 26th largest media market in the major leagues – will never have enough money to win an all-out bidding war with the New Yorks and Bostons of the world. But Jocketty is able to land big-name stars like Rolen, McGwire, and Edmonds by auditioning them before the local crowd, encouraging them to soak in the Red Sea down at Busch Stadium, and letting them bask in the womblike environment that’s so different from whatever town they’re fleeing. It’s a clever approach for signing superstars, Midwestern-style.

      Looking back on it, Jim Edmonds was probably the riskiest property that Jocketty landed via this method. It’s funny to laugh about Kent "the Body" Bottenfield now, but back then he was coming off his 18-win season (albeit a hollow 18 wins), the only Cardinal with double-digit wins in 1999. And Adam Kennedy was a highly regarded second baseman, the Cards’ Minor League Player of the Year in a system that included Rick Ankiel. Edmonds, on the other hand, had just completed a year in which he hit .250 with 5 homers in only 55 games. But Jocketty gambled that he could sell high and buy low.

      The move paid off almost immediately. Edmonds smoked 42 home runs and the Cards strolled to their first division title in four years. More importantly, Jim Edmonds had found a home. He liked playing Tonto to Mark McGwire; and he liked that he didn’t have to be The Man in a city that already had at least one.

      ............................................................*****

      It hasn’t been all wine and roses since then. In May of last year Edmonds hurt his shoulder diving for a ball – some said needlessly – and the whispers started up again, the old idea that Edmonds would rather look good than help his team. The whispers got louder in July, when he wrenched his shoulder during the Home Run Derby, of all things, and fizzled in the second half.

      In fact, Edmonds – who struck out in 47% of his at bats in September – took a lot of blame for the Cardinals late-season swoon. People said he was part of a clubhouse faction led by Tino Martinez, and there were heavy rumors that he would be shipped off to the Dodgers for younger talent. Around that time Edmonds told CBS Sportsline, "One thing I can say, and I truly mean it from my heart, when you don't play well [in St. Louis], you feel bad. You feel bad for the city, for the organization, for your teammates... When you lose here it's different, because it brings the whole city down. People really care about you."

      But as the Cards have heated up this season, so has Jim Edmonds. They’ve raced to 72 wins in their first 110 games and Jimmy has the majors’ second-highest OPS (that is, if you exclude non-mortals). And what about the idea that Jim Edmonds is a me-first ballplayer who swings too much from the heels? Well, the other night Edmonds came up with Pujols on first, one out, down by a run. Just then the Cards’ big lefthander, who hit more homers in July than anyone else, laid down the prettiest bunt you ever saw. Three Mets players watched it meander up the third-base line, then come to a complete stop smack-dab in the middle of the chalk. The hometown crowd cheered as if he had hit it 435 feet.

      Whether laying down bunt singles, hitting game-winning home runs, or preventing runs with his glove and arm, Edmonds can beat you in a number of ways. Let’s face it, Edmonds could be an upper-echelon corner outfielder or first baseman based on his hitting alone. Throw in a solid – even spectacular – glove and arm at a key defensive position and you have the makings of one of the premier players in the game.

      Sunday, August 08, 2004


      SCRAPS FOR SUNDAY A few things to chew on while listening to the Cardinals game:

    • We now know that the Larry Walker deal was not just a salary dump for the Rockies. The two PTBNL are John Gall (one of the top ten hitters in the Pacific Coast League) and Chris Narveson (one of the Cards better pitching prospects). Narveson has struggled with injuries and command -- and I'd still trade him for Walker -- but did he have to choose last night to pitch his best game of the year? Seven innings, 4 hits, 0 runs, 0 walks, 9 strikeouts.


    • The Cardinals are 48-9 when they score first.


    • Renteria and Rolen have but one throwing error between them all year.


    • Here are the Cardinals' reserve outfielders ranked according to OPS:
      1. Mabry     .934
      
      2. Cedeno .826
      3. Lankford .778
      4. Taguchi .678
      5. Luna .667
      6. Anderson .653
      Would Lankford be the guy that you cut? Taguchi is known as a better fielder than Lankford, but it doesn't seem like he covers any more ground (Taguchi makes 1.81 plays per nine innings as a LF; Lankford makes 1.84). Plus Lankford has more pop and reaches base more frequently. But by all accounts Lankford will be the odd man out.

    • Friday, August 06, 2004


      HELLO LARRY Larry Walker -- former MVP, lifetime .314 hitter, and charter member of Redbird Nation's All-Hoosier team -- is now a Cardinal. Sounds pretty good, don't it? Is it a good deal? Well, some of my thoughts are pretty slapdash, but I'll try to answer a few questions before I hit the hay:

      Will Walker help the Cardinals? He certainly should. Cardinal leftfielders are a collective .260/.326/.411 -- that's not good. The acquisition of Walker allows us to cut Lankford out of the picture (I feel bad putting it that way, but it's true), slide Reggie Sanders over to left, and put Walker in right. Walker can still rake, no question about it. He's got a .324/.464/.630 line this year, and you're not wearing Coors-colored glasses either: Larry is slugging .780 with a .500+ OBP on the road this year. Okay, okay, that's in fewer than 100 PA's, but he does have an .886 road OPS the last three years combined. How good is an .886 OPS? Well, it's not as good as the best RFers this year (Drew, Abreu, Cabrera, Sosa), but it's the next level down and, more importantly, a sizable upgrade over what the Cards are getting from their corner outfielders. And by having Mabry, Sanders, and Anderson vying for one slot, TLR can better exploit their strengths and/or mix-and-match to give Walker some rest. (By the way, I don't know where Walker will bat in the lineup, but I'd prefer he hit ahead of Pujols and Rolen, where the Cards could take advantage of his uncommonly good eye. Walker trails only Bonds and Berkman this year in walks per plate appearance.)

      Can Walker stay healthy? Walker gets banged up easily, everyone knows that. Some have even compared him to Pete Reiser, the WW2-era outfielder for the Dodgers who may have made the Hall if only he managed to stay in one piece. What about Larry? Can he stay healthy? Well, depends what you mean by "healthy." Larry Walker will never again be 100%; let's accept that right off the bat. Will he be healthy enough? That's a harder question to answer. Despite working his ass off all winter and getting into "the best shape of his career," Walker suffered a badly strained groin that took awhile to heal (that's par for the course with LW), and he didn't join the Rox lineup 'til the last week of June. In the past year alone, Walker has had a bad groin, a bad hip, a bad elbow, a bad hammy, a bad shoulder, as well as surgery to clean up cartilage in his knee. (I was about to make some lame joke about Walker needing a walker to get to the plate, but... Is it too late? I made the joke already? Shoot, sorry.) The bottom line is I have no idea if Walker will stay healthy, but he's at a point in his career where each injury seems to beget more injuries (or what Will Carroll calls the "cascade" effect). I won't put odds on Larry staying healthy, but it's safe to say he's a gamble. In other sobering news, Walker's batting line for the last two Augusts and Septembers: a fairly ho-hum .265/.373/.465. So Redbird fans, cross your fingers, say the rosary, do whatever you need to do to keep Larry healthy and hitting.

      What did he cost? Two farmhands to be named later, an okay Class A pitcher, and $8 million (the Rockies agreed to eat $9MM of the $17.5MM left on his contract). In return the Cards get Walker for the rest of this year and all of next. I've heard that one of the PTBNL might be Chris Narveson. Narveson's had an up-and-down year in AA, but he's only 22 and still a big prospect (at least for us he is). That might tilt the scales a bit. I've never heard of Jason Burch, the one name we do know, but I hear he's got good breaking stuff. No big loss there, it seems. The real sacrifice, so far anyway, is money -- about $3 million this year and $5 million in 2005. $5 million can buy you a bit of talent these days. Among the worthies who signed for that amount of money (or less) this past offseason: Jose Guillen, Rondell White, Raul Ibanez. Not great players, no, but serviceable guys. It's very possible Walker would get $5 million (or even more) if he were put up for auction right now, so the money isn't a huge issue (and the Cards should get some extra postseason revenue if they play their cards right). Basically the Cards are shelling out the money not to win the division, but to go deep into the playoffs this year. Whether it was worth it may depend on how well Larry does during that three-week window in October.

      What about intangibles? I just always like how pundits talk about intangibles as if they know what the hell they're talking about. (Favorite recent example: Pete Gammons reamed the Dodgers for trading Lo Duca, the leader of a team that, in Gammons' words, "had the best chemistry of any team over the last 15 years." Where did he come up with that data? And how is it that the leaderless Dodgers reeled off a four-game win streak right after Lo Duca left?) Anyway, the intangible I appreciate is this one: Larry Walker was one of the best players on one of the best teams of our era, the 1994 Montreal Expos. But he never got to play in the postseason that year because the owners and players thought it made more sense to cancel a whole shitload of baseball games. Hopefully Larry will get to finally play for a great postseason team (he played for a non-great postseason team in 1995, his first year in thin air) by donning the Birds on the Bat.

      What's the final verdict? Walker is a gamble worth taking. Yeah, he's brittle; yeah, we gave up some commodities to land him. But what the hell -- the Cardinals haven't won it all in 22 years (meaning there are Cards fans who have graduated from college who were born after our last championship team). We have such a grand opportunity to go deep this year, and there's no reason to put up with subpar play from our corner outfielders. In fact, there's no reason not to put all our chips on the table. I mean, it might bum us out if we give up someone like Narveson and he turns out to be something special, but put it this way: would you sacrifice, say, 4 wins in 2007 if it meant having the best team possible in 2004? Unless there's something we don't know about (I'm thinking specifically of the possibility we could have landed the Big Unit; but I highly doubt we could have gotten him with only $4-5 million per year), I believe that the addition of Walker makes us the best team we can be for the rest of the season. Congrats to Walt Jocketty and the Cardinals brass for seizing the day and bringing an extra gun to a gunfight.


      THE PORTABLE REDBIRD NATION No posts today on this site, but if you want a RBN fix, you can check out this guest column I did over at the Hardball Times. Aaron Gleeman, the wunderkind blogger and co-founder of THT, approached me about a week ago and asked me how in the world the Cards got to where they are. Hopefully my article provides a partial explanation.


      Thursday, August 05, 2004


      ONE WAY TO LOOK AT IT Much was made last year of the fact that the Florida Marlins "had the best record in the league after May 30th (or whenever) last year. Like many teams in many years, Florida had a rough period, a super-hot period, and then a lot of time where they played .500 ball and didn't really hurt themselves. Recent Cardinal teams have followed this trend as well. LaRussa's teams have a nice history of finding their stride in late August and September and sprinting to the postseason (where they cut themselves with a hunting knife... but that's a different story and those were different teams).

      But this year, well, this year's been different. The consistency has been fairly incredible. The Cardinals have had NO really rough periods, which I think leads to worrying among many members of the Nation. It's gotta happen sooner or later, right? I mean, every team has a 2-8 streak in there somewhere that just needs to work itself out, right? Well, maybe. (If you're scared of witnessing a rough stretch, I'd make plans to go camping from August 31 to September 12 when the Birds play 12 games against the Padres and Dodgers in 13 days. Actually, those teams don't scare me that much but, other than the Mets at home and the Florida-Atlanta road trip next week, that's about all that's left of the over-.500 teams for the rest of the year.)

      If you look at the Cardinals' weekly results you see that they've played 17 calendar weeks (Sunday to Saturday) and only lost two of them. Obviously some of the weeks span two different months. Check it out:

      APRIL
      Week 1 3-3
      Week 2 3-3
      Week 3 3-3
      Week 4 3-3

      MAY
      Week 5: 3-4
      Week 6: 5-1
      Week 7: 3-3
      Week 8: 3-2

      JUNE
      Week 9: 6-1
      Week 10: 3-4
      Week 11: 6-0
      Week 12: 4-2
      Week 13: 3-3

      JULY
      Week 14: 6-0
      Week 15: 2-2 (All-Star Week)
      Week 16: 5-2
      Week 17: 5-1

      Ever hear the old cliché that pennants are not won in April? Well, I buy into that one. I do think, though, that pennants can be lost in April. Stumble out to a 6-18 start and see how many guys stay fired up to win the rest of the year. Give credit to the team for staying afloat through the first two months and not really hurting themselves.

      The key week, I think, was Week 11. Sure, they'd had a nice run in Week 6 and again in Week 9 but Week 10 set them back a bit. When the team proved to itself and to its fans that it could bounce back and rip off yet another 6-0 run I think we all realized this year was different. Basically, that sweep of Oakland and weekend series with Cincy (which included two miracle comebacks) launched the Cardinals into the orbit they are currently in, miles above the rest of the NL. There were a few attempts at mission interference by the Cubs, but the June 23 and July 20th games restored order and kept the good guys on top.

      What's interesting, and neat, about the level of play this team has reached (a level not seen in the Nation since 1985) is that it is pretty much the same team that played .500 ball early on. Normally you can point to an infusion of something new like Jack McKeon last year, or the myriad second-half players Billy Beane has equipped his Oakland teams with, making them the best second-half team in baseball over the last few years. The only real changes I can see on this team since Opening Day are Yadier Molina, John Mabry, and Kiko Calero.

      To be fair, Molina has actually been a godsend, if only to keep Matheny fresher and perhaps a bit less of an offensive liability. And Mabry has sort of stepped in for Lankford as a decent left-handed bat and LF option. (Odd how both guys are Cardinal retreads, eh?) Calero is basically Mike Lincoln with a bit less ability. Finally, I cannot skip over the fact that Greg Williams is a healthy Woody now and certainly was not back in April. Other than that (and please prove me wrong if I am) I can't see any huge personnel changes that would point to the dramatic transformation of this team from middle-of-the-pack to Kings of the National League. And I have no problem with that.

      Keep it going, boys. Keep it going.


      Wednesday, August 04, 2004


      IT'S THAT MAN AGAIN Albert Pujols is your classic enabler -- he'll cover up just about any mistake you make. And believe me, the Cards made a ton of mistakes tonight. There were three errors (including a gigantic muff by Womack and a shocker by Mike Matheny of all people), slipshod relief work (for the second night in a row), shaky starting pitching (including a big double to the opposing pitcher), a bad bunt (Suppan, hurting his own cause), a man caught stealing (Mabry, naturally), a busted hit and run (which turned out okay b/c Vidro goofed up the tag), lots of runners left on base (the Cards had 19 baserunners in all but only five came home), and three GIDPs that looked for all the world like killers (the worst was Renteria's with runners on first and third, one out in the 8th).

      But just like the game a week ago, our big boys made up for a lot of ef-ups. That is, if you can consider John Mabry a big boy. He came up large all night long -- a two-run jack to start the comeback, then a massive two-out two-run go-ahead single in the eighth. But that was just table-setting for the man of the hour, Mr. Pujols. How sweet was his walk-off job? Well, I've already converted Mike Shannon's home run call into free verse. It goes like this:

      Swing and a DRIVE
      to deep center.
      GET UP, BABY!
      Git up git up git up!
      Good night, folks.

      It was Albert's fourth career "good night" homer (the active leaders are Bonds and Sosa, each with 10), and perhaps his giddiest yet. He just floated around the bases.

      Looking ahead: Thursday night's game may be the last ever between the St. Louis Cardinals and the Montreal Expos. Due to various misdeeds and demographic trends, Montreal's ballclub has been on life support for some time. When they go, it'll be like the death of a long-suffering relative: "It's sort of a relief, but sad all the same."

      And like a frail relative, it's best not to think about their current state of decrepitude (those 3.7 runs per game sure are ugly, aren't they?); instead we should remember the good times. When I first became a baseball fan -- I mean a truly rabid baseball fan -- Les Expos were an NL powerhouse. It's easy to forget this now, but at one time the Expos looked resplendent in their robin's-egg-blue unis, and I can still recall my old ritual of opening the Post sports pages each morning and checking in on the exploits of guys like Steve Rogers, Rock Raines, and Hawk Dawson.

      The Cardinals were the first team to play the Expos in Canada, all the way back in 1969, before I was born even (the Expos won the game; one of the few times they actually won that year). Assuming Herr Bud doesn't jerk us around for another year (and really, no one should assume that), tonight the head-to-head meetings between the Birds and the 'Spos will come full circle. But don't worry about losing bragging rights. The Cards lead the all-time series, 266-262.


      SUPPAN SUPPRESSED Jeff Suppan coasted into the All-Star Break with a nifty 3.33 ERA and a long string of good, workmanlike outings. In four starts since the break, his numbers look like this (if there are women or children present, you may want to cover their eyes): 22.2 innings pitched, 44 baserunners, and an unsightly 7.54 ERA. That's not quite Matt Morris territory (his post-break ERA is a tumid 8.31), but it's more out of line with his performance to date.

      Now, you know and I know that 22 innings don't tell you much (just last year, the Big Unit had an 8.10 ERA in April), but you'd have to be made of some pretty strong stuff not to get just a wee bit worried at Suppan's recent dive. I mean, allowing two baserunners per inning? That's obscene. From 2002-2004, Suppan has a 3.83 ERA before the break, 5.95 after. That's more than a slight dip and a lot closer to a disturbing trend.


      WHAT IS THIS WORLD COMING TO? First we had Minute Maid Park. Then we had U.S. Cellular Field. Next came Network Associates Colesium. Now we have a new name for the stadium under construction in St. Louis: get this -- Busch Stadium. Evidently it's named after Adolphus Busch and the brewery he founded in 1864, which I believe is called Anheuser-Busch. This baseball-industrial complex is getting out of control. I mean, it's one thing to name a ballpark after chewing gum, but beer? This is very disturbing.


      RICK ANKIEL REVISITED, REVISITED Here's what Will Carroll has to say about Dick Ankiel's start yesterday:

      It would have been enough to see him out on the mound, but when Rick Ankiel struck out three and walked none in the Florida State League on Monday night, both Cards fans and medheads rejoiced. Cards fans can hold out hope that Ankiel could finally live up to his promise, while medheads have another data point that "Steve Blass Disease" is actually a medical condition related to proprioception in the elbow. Ankiel has a ways to go and is operating under strict limits, but he will be up in September. While it's too much to think that Ankiel could be the rotation saver the Cards need, it's not out of the question that we might see him pitch in the playoffs.
      Huh? What this proprioception thing? I asked Will for details, and he told me that proprioception is basically the body's ability to detect its position in space. It's largely an unconscious perception, akin to the inner ear's function in coordinating movement and balance.

      But as this article makes clear, you can improve the body's proprioception. For example, compare what it's like to hike up a hill with a 40-pound weight on your back vs. the same experience for a seasoned backpacker. The novice will take the weight off and have difficulty walking -- his center of gravity may be off-kilter, or as my dad would say, catywampus -- but with practice the same guy can shift between various loads quite easily. (I'm not positive, but I assume that weird effect whereby you ride rollercoasters all day, then feel as if you're twisting and hurtling forward after you're done, or even while you're falling asleep at night, is related to proprioception.)

      Anyway, there are exercises one may do to improve the body's spatial orientation. These may be critical for those recovering from Tommy John surgery, who, as Will puts it, "have a problem because the nerves that handle proprioception get muddled." It would certainly be great news if Rick Ankiel's troubles could be given a precise physiological cause and treatment, as opposed to the tangled psychological etiology currently in effect.

      Tuesday, August 03, 2004


      BOMBED BY BATISTA Tonight's game should be enough to convince anyone that (a) the Cardinals are not invincible (the team made things interesting in their last half-inning, but otherwise they rolled over after going up 6-2), and (b) Danny Haren needs more work before he proves anything to anybody. The AP wire was so convinced that the Cards had this game in the bag that they closed their report with this sentence: "St. Louis is a season-high 31 games over .500 (68-37)." Nope -- we actually lost tonight, falling to 67-38, not to mention 1-3 on the year against the Expos. How embarrassing.


      RICK ANKIEL, REVISITED I tried to listen to Rick Ankiel's first start in more than a year over the Internet, but the radio station's server got so jammed that I couldn't even log on. There wasn't much drama to report -- just two innings from Ankiel, 33 pitches, one run, no walks -- which is exactly how the Cardinals prefer things: nice, easy, no fuss. Heck, if they had their druthers Rick Ankiel would pitch all his games in some fortress of solitude somewhere, without the prying eyes of the press, the stomping feet of the fans, or countless ears over the Internet.

      But of course, that won't happen. Instead every game Ankiel pitches from here on out will be pored over like an Encyclopedia Brown mystery, everyone combing for clues, errors, flaws. But if there was a smoking gun lying around yesterday, you wouldn't know it from these press clippings:

      ...Ankiel did not walk a batter, and reached three balls to just one hitter. He struck out three, as his fastball reached 92 mph in the second inning...

      ...He needed 33 pitches to complete the two innings, 20 of them strikes....

      ...On one of the strikeouts, he froze left fielder Joe Jiannetti with a big-time curveball. It was reminiscent of the one he displayed during a distinctive 2000 rookie regular season with the Cardinals, when he struck out 194, breaking Dizzy Dean's club rookie record. "It went from 12 to six," Jiannetti said, meaning, by the arm of a clock, how sharply Ankiel's curveball broke. "He had such a sharp break on it, you could hear the snap coming out of his fingers"...
      Then again, we've been down this road before. In Ankiel's last start he went 7 innings, gave up only 2 hits, no runs, 3 walks, punched out 12. A couple weeks he was cut open, out for the year. And who can forget this game -- Ankiel's first after the 2000 playoffs, when he was pitching like a mad, unattended firehose. He pitched 5 innings that day, struck out 8, walked only three, beat Randy Johnson, and we all thought he had emerged on the other side of the tunnel. The rest of the year with the big club he issued 22 walks in 19 innings, then went down to AAA and walked 17 more, in only 4.1 innings.

      The whole experience reminds me of -- well, you ever see some guy mess with a dog? The dog will be all eager to play fetch, and the guy will fake-throw a tennis ball or something like that. The dog will take off running, then come back, confused, after she figures out the guy is still holding the ball. So then the guy will again rear back like he's gonna throw the ball, and again the dog will take off, tongue happily hanging out, before she realizes she's been duped again. By the third time the guy can't fake her out so easily. He'll rear back to throw, but the dog will cock her head and give him a look, half-hopeful, half-wary, not really sure if she should play along or not. That's how I feel with Rick Ankiel. He's the guy with the ball; I'm the dog.

      This is not to say I feel deliberately duped by Ankiel. As I've said in this space before, I root for Rick Ankiel more than any player in baseball. And I'm not even sure why, exactly. Maybe it's because he is, by all accounts, one of the nicest guys around, a good-natured imp who certainly doesn't deserve to have his deepest psychological hang-ups aired before a live audience. Or maybe it's because there are few things sadder to me than the Hemingway-esque athlete who peaks by age 21. Or maybe Roger Angell was closer to the truth when he wrote about Steve Blass, the fine Pirates righthander who gave his name to the bewildering syndrome that plagues Ankiel:
      Professional sports have a powerful hold on us because they display and glorify remarkable physical capacities, and because the artificial demands of games played for very high rewards produce vivid responses. But sometimes,
      of course, what is happening on the field seems to speak to something deeper
      within us; we stop cheering and look on in uneasy silence, for the man out there is no longer just another great athlete, an idealized hero, but only a man -- only ourself.
      I guess each of us suffers from Steve Blass syndrome now and again. Most of us are able put aside such dark thoughts and get on with our day-to-day lives, but it always seems to be lingering around -- the fear that our best talents, our best moments in life, will be suddenly, and inexplicably, gone.


      CHICKEN SOUP FOR THE CARDINALS SOUL Josh Schulz has some intelligent suggestions for Tony La Russa down the stretch. Basically they boil down to giving John Gall a shot in left, and using August and September to rest Edmonds, Rolen, Renteria, and a couple of our bullpen arms. With a home series starting tonight against lowly Montreal, this might be a good time to comfort those weary bones.


      BUM WING Here's Will Carroll's take after watching Matt Morris on Saturday night:

      I come away more convinced than ever that he has a progressive problem in his shoulder. I won't Houdini the thing and diagnose him, but I think that it speaks well that he's been able to have some success in spite of it. If something isn't torn, he could be rested—given the Cards' big lead— and come back stronger. There are some situations where a DL stint is a net positive and I think Morris could be in one of those situations.

      Danny Haren, anyone?


      COMING UP ACES King Kaufman has a complimentary article about the 2004 Cardinals (warning: you have to sit through an ad to read it). The most astonishing part of the article was this stat -- the team record in games started by individual members of our rotation:

      Chris Carpenter: 13-6
      Jason Marquis: 13-7
      Jeff Suppan: 13-7
      Woody Williams: 13-7
      Matt Morris: 13-8

      These numbers have changed a bit the last couple days, but the general point holds. As our friend Retro-shiite observed, that's a .619 winning percentage when our worst starter takes the mound. The Cardinals are becoming the mirror image of the old Unit-Schilling D'Backs, who were mediocre on most days but devastating when the Goliaths took the mound. We don't have any Goliaths over here, but we do have a lot of tallish guys.

      (Speaking of which, Jim Baker has an interesting tidbit about how the Cards' starters stack up against the other NL rotations if the playoffs started today. I started to write something about it, then realized the utter absurdity of breaking down playoff pairings on August 3rd. I mean, I know this is pretty paranoid, but check out what the AL West standings looked like on August 3rd just nine years ago. I don't think I need to tell you that the Angels didn't make that postseason.)


      TWO-BAGGERS Have you noticed that the Cardinals hit a shitload of doubles? Pujols is on pace for 45. Edmonds is on pace for 48. Renteria, 39; Rolen, 37. Altogether the Cards are on pace for 347 doubles, which would be the highest total for any National League club since World War II. Here's the post-WWII leaderboard:

      1. 2003 Cardinals, 342
      2. 1997 Expos, 339
      3. 1998 Rockies, 333
      4. 2003 Rockies, 330
      5. 1998 Astros, 326

      Did you know last year's Cards team hit that many doubles? Me neither. They had more doubles than any NL team since... the 1931 Cardinals. Who had more doubles than any NL team since the 1930 Cardinals, who share the all-time record.


      CAL THE DIVINE Eric Neel and I have something in common -- we both think The Streak is one of the more overrated records in all of pro sports.


      NOMAR NO MORE Here's how a New England pal of mine reacted to losing Nomar:

      Nomar had become like an old radio that you had in college, that was great for a long time, still very useful, played great music for you during some great years of your life - heck, you were emotionally attached to the ol' boombox. But time came when you needed something more, and the old boombox needed to go to Goodwill or Salvation Army. You're nostalgic about getting rid of it, plus you feel like there's some use left in it, but you know that you need to cut the cord and move on. Once you've dropped it off at the donation center, you feel better knowing that you're looking ahead. I feel like we dropped Nomar off at the Salvation Army donation center and we're moving on.

      On the receiving end of things, Derek Smart had this shrewd observation from Nomar's first game in Wrigley:

      [H]ow cool was it when Nomar asked for the ball after his first hit as a Cub? I'm no psychologist, but I don't think players who view their time with a team as a short-term rental agreement ask for sentimental souvenirs of their stint in
      uniform. He looked like a man who wanted to be where he was (and who wouldn't, with the reception he got?), and who might want to stay there for a long time.

      Oh Jesus. Does that mean we're gonna have to put up with his batter's box Tourette's for the next umpteen years?

      Monday, August 02, 2004


      STANDING PAT Walt Jocketty has said that the trading deadline hasn't kicked in for him, that he might go out and make some deals this August. But whatever he does, it'll likely be minor, if not cosmetic -- whoever he gets will have to pass through waivers, and no team under the Cardinals is going to sit on its hands and watch the Birdinals re-load for the playoffs.

      In a recent post over at All-Baseball.com (and if you don't read the guys over there already, you should start; to a man they're wildly smart about baseball), a roundtable discussion about deadline winners and losers took the following turn:

      Jon Weisman: Is it possible that the Cardinals are losers for standing pat? Sure, they've locked up the division, and their offense is wonderful, but aren't they vulnerable in an October series with their current starting rotation? I don't know the answer; I'm just asking. Should they have been going after a Brad Penny or the equivalent? What might they have traded for a Brad Penny? Prospects? Or am I underrating the St. Louis starters?

      Mike Carminati: No, you're not. Everyone's all over the Yankees for the same issue, but no one seems to mind that the Card's best pitcher is Jason Marquis(!).

      Alex Ciepley: The Cardinals were in an interesting position -- based on how they've played so far, there was no reason to look for an upgrade. But do people really think this team is for real? Would you really want to enter the postseason featuring a "fearsome" rotation that headlines Jeff Suppan, Chris Carpenter, Jason Marquis, and the tattered remains of Matt Morris's shoulder? They could luck into a World Series championship with the club they have, but I don't think this is anyone's idea of a truly great team.

      Christian Ruzich: I don't think they're losers, necessarily, since they have the division pretty much in hand. But the rotation is a little shaky (the baling wire and papier mache seems to be coming loose from Matty Mo and Jeff Suppan), you're right. The thing is, I don't know what, if anything, they had to offer in trade. As Brian Gunn said on Redbird Nation the other day (as he was grudgingly admitting the Cubs made a good trade), "the fact remains that our shallow farm system really limits our options. I mean, Jocketty has been saying for weeks that he won't deal any prospects if the price is too high, but when you have only a handful of legit young talents (Haren, Molina, Daric Barton), almost any price is too high -- hell, you trade one of those guys and it's like mortgaging half your future."

      Will Carroll: They're not winners, but they had nothing to deal with. They have a complete dearth of prospects and little cash to work with to take on payroll. Besides swapping Matt Morris for Lowe (no upgrade there) or Millwood (couldn't work out the $$), there wasn't much they could do.
      Two quibbles: one, you can judge for yourself, but I don't think I had to "grudgingly" admit the Nomar deal was great for the Cubs. Two, is Alex Ciepley putting us on when he asks, "do people really think this team is for real?" Come on now. We might have flaws; our record might be a tad inflated; but does a team that's 30 games over .500 by the beginning of August (in the toughest division in baseball, no less; or at least one of the toughest anyway) have to prove to anyone that it's "for real"? I mean, cut a brother some slack already. (Unless to be "for real" you have to win the World Series and take your place as one of the "truly great" teams; but that's a pretty stiff standard if I ever heard one.)

      As for Jocketty's inaction: well, I hate to admit this, but I don't think there's much else the Cards could have done before Saturday's deadline, despite my instistence that the team should go balls-out to try to win now. And by winning, I'm not talking about the NL Central. I mean the NLDS, the NLCS, the World Series, the whole she-bang -- after all, 10 1/2-game leads don't come by all that often. In other words, the team that got us this far should be rebuilt for one thing and one thing only: winning a short series. Ideally, then, the Cards should sacrifice depth and future plans for frontloaded talent and short-term gain.

      But that's in an ideal world. Practically speaking, the market conditions may not have made that possible. You want frontloaded talent? Well, the Cards already have fronloaded hitting -- what we're really talking about is a lights-out ace starter. Unit is a bonafide ace, but the Cards don't have the cheddar to sign him. Benson is no one's idea of an ace (except maybe the Mets'). The only possible #1 that changed hands this summer was Brad Penny.

      Could the Cardinals have nabbed Penny? Doubtful. The Marlins wanted a catcher, bad, and while the Cards have some good young catchers in the pipeline, they don't have anyone who would help the Fish repeat as champions this year.

      Who else was out there? Who's a great pitcher who's not in a pennant race? Ben Sheets? (No way the Cards could get him.) Oliver Perez? (Ditto, and besides, he's still being nursed along -- not a guy you can depend on to log serious innings in October.) How about Livan Hernandez? Now there's an idea. I could see Jocketty packaging up a youngster or two, taking on Livan's contract (which escalates to $7.7 million each of the next two years). I can tell you I'd feel better with Livan starting Game 1 of the NLDS than I would Jason Marquis, despite all the love Jason has been showing us lately.

      So maybe there was some kind of tango partner out there for the Cardinals; I don't know. Jocketty said he was on the phone with everyone, and given his track record I tend to believe him when he says the waters weren't right for a deal. (Although I wonder if he felt any less gun shy after the Cubs sprang Nomar on them at the 11th hour.) The fact is I can't think of many legitimate options for the Cardinals to pursue, which leads me to think that if the Cards were losers at the trading deadline, it wasn't because they didn't pull the trigger this July. More likely it was because they didn't stockpile enough minor-league talent so many years ago to land any big fish.

      Sunday, August 01, 2004


      MY FELLOW MERKINS Imagine Merkin Valdez's luck. First some fool saddles him with a name that's synonymous with a pubic toupee; next he has to make his major league debut against Pujols, Rolen, and Edmonds, only the most dangerous murderer's row in all of baseball. Merkin never did make it to Edmonds -- instead he became the first of many Giants relievers that the Cards battered into submission tonight, same as they'd done the last two nights. So the Cards came away with a win, ended the road trip 5-1 (what else is new), and split their season series with the Giants (I guess I had it in my head that we were becoming the Giants' own personal Washington Generals, but we actually came this close to sweeping them this weekend).

      By the way, did you hear Jon Miller say that both Woody Williams and Jason Schmidt were vying for their 100th win tonight? Wonder if that's ever happened before -- a head-to-head showdown for such a milestone. Woody became the Century Man before Schmidt, although it took him 5 more starts and 87 more games to get there. He's still got bragging rights.

      You know what my favorite shot of the night was? It was around the eigth inning or so, and the ESPN cameras cut to a guy in PacBell holding a red-painted rubber chicken at his side. As you might know, the fans in San Fran bring rubber chickens to the park to chide teams who don't have the balls to pitch to Barry Bonds. I guess this guy painted his chicken red to ridicule the Cardinals in particular.

      As it turns out the Cardinals did pitch to Bonds -- all weekend long -- and retired him all four times he came to the dish (it was only the fourth time all year he went the whole game without reaching base). And I couldn't help but think of that poor dude walking home after the game, holding that stupid red chicken at his side, thinking, "Man, what do I do with this thing? I mean, I could just throw it away, but I spent half the damn morning looking for a rubber chicken at Spencer's and Sav-On, then spent even more time dyeing it in the bathtub and all that. I guess I could just throw it in a drawer somewhere, and maybe use it next time I got tickets to a Reds game. But do I really want to go to a Reds game? And what if Barry is retired by then? Shoot, man..."


      RUBBER GAME Two very odd games kicked off this weekend series in San Fran. After the first inning of Friday night's game, with Jerome Williams rolling and the Giants going nuclear on Chris Carpenter, I thought the Cards would take a rare mulligan. Instead they tightened their cleats and went to work, outscoring the Gints 7-1 the rest of the way and, to paraphrase the logo on Elvis' gold-plated Beretta, took care of business.

      Last night's game was even less expected, but with different results. Once again the Cardinals, and the reliably unreliable Matt Morris, spotted San Fran an 8-spot in the first, then came roaring back thanks to another bombalicious game from Jim Edmonds and an attractive turn from Danny Haren. But the rally fell short and the Cards turned the 8-0 laugher into a one-run loss that was, in retrospect, eminently winnable (they actually outhit and outslugged the opposition, but didn't cluster their hits together like San Fran did).

      The loss makes taking the series a real uphill climb -- the Cards face Jason Schmidt this evening -- and it also ended the team's latest five-game win streak. Did you know the Birdinals have now had six five-game winning streaks, all of them since June 4th? That's incredible. And a far cry from what some moron wrote back on May 24th on Redbird Nation:

      Once again the Cardinals are finding themselves like Rocky or the Bad News
      Bears in reverse: they simply cannot deal with prosperity. Every time this year
      they've had a chance to make a run, they've faltered. Sweep the Astros in Minute Maid -- drop two of three to the Brewers. Take two of three from the Phils on the road -- lose two in a row to the Expos. Win in Wrigley on Friday -- fall on Saturday and Sunday. In fact, the Cards haven't had a single four-game win streak all year. Even the Mariners, even the Expos, even the Devil Rays, for God's sake, have had four-game win streaks.

      Not only did the D-Rays go on to have a twelve game winning streak, the Cards have morphed into an insatiable machine. (They closed the book on July with a blistering 20-5 mark.) Let's hope they start a new win streak later on tonight.


      TOE TO TOE Once again the Cards have stared into the teeth of Barry Bonds without flinching. A few Fridays ago in Busch, Barry hit a monstrous bomb off Chris Carpenter, but the Cards still refused to pitch around him. Same deal so far in PacBell -- Barry, an aquaholic when it comes to putting them in the Bay, hit a huge homer in his first AB of the series, but La Russa kept sending his boys right at him.

      As I mentioned last week, the Cards are the only team in the majors that consistently challenges Bonds. Over the past two seasons, they've only walked him 5 times in 34 plate appearances (they also hit him once; don't know if that qualifies as pitching around him or not).

      I'm surprised this isn't a bigger story. For the last couple years baseball people have been wondering what might happen if teams actually pitched to Barry Bonds. Would the Giants score more or less runs? Would Barry become more or less locked in? Would his homers outweigh his walks? What would happen?

      Well, the Cardinals are giving armchair managers a micro-study in what might actually happen. I know this is an extremely small sample size -- just 8 games -- but here are Bonds numbers against the Cards' approach in 2003-2004:

      28 at bats
      9 hits
      1 double
      5 homers
      5 walks
      1 hit by pitch

      That works out to a AVG/OBP/SLG line of .321/.441/.893

      Against the rest of baseball the last two seasons, Bonds is hitting .347/.565/.750

      In other words, what happens when you pitch to Bonds -- and again, this is a very small sample to draw from -- seems to be what people thought might happen: his on-base percentage drops (obviously) and his slugging goes up (perhaps because he can sit on pitches more).

      Is it a net gain for the Cardinals? Not really. Using Bill James rough-n'-ready runs created formula, Bonds created 1.33 runs per game in his matchups vs. the Cardinals, compared to 1.13 vs. everyone else. If that's enough to convince you that pitching to Bonds is a bad strategy, fair enough. To me it seems like the jury is still out, or perhaps it's more of a wash, or perhaps it's a slight negative -- who knows. If nothing else, pitching to Barry makes the game much more fun. I'll take that.

      Update: The above numbers have changed after Sunday night's game. The Cards pitched to Bonds all four times he was up -- in fact, they threw him only four balls out of the strike zone all night, and Woody Williams threw him 11 pitches in one AB to close the fifth (which is probably as many pitches as Bonds has seen in one plate appearance all year, maybe the most in years). Anyway, the Cards got Bonds out all four times, which means we've now walked him only 5 times in 38 plate appearances over two seasons. His line against us over that span: .281/.395/.781, which is now worse than he does relative to the other teams.


      THE $32,430,000 INFIELD Rob Neyer has an interesting article in which he sizes up the Cards' and Rangers' infields against the best infields of all time. He writes,

      [I]f the Rangers have been impressive, the Cardinals have been
      historic. Powered by MVP-caliber seasons from both Albert Pujols and Scott
      Rolen, the St. Louis infielders -- Pujols and Rolen, along with second baseman
      Tony Womack and shortstop Edgar Renteria -- totaled 71 Win Shares through their first 95 games, which projects to 121 for the season. That would be
      the second-biggest number I've found, behind only the $100,000 Infield.

      The $100,000 Infield, of course, was Connie Mack's collection of diamond gems from the 1911-1914 Athletics squads, and their high in cume Win Shares was 123. Of course, Neyer, working from the Baseball Pundit Handbook, couldn't resist getting a parting shot in at our second baseman. "It's hard to take seriously," he writes, "any unit that includes Tony Womack among its members."

      A slightly annoying point, to be sure, but fair enough. When you're talking about the greatest infields ever, you should dock a few points from one-hit wonders.


      DANNY GRAVES, on the 2004 Cardinals: "If you started the postseason right now, I think the Yankees are the only team that could hang with them."


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